Another horrific massacre is looming in Syria as the regime of President Bashar Al Assad — feeling buoyant, following victory after victory courtesy the Russian air force — sets its sights on the main rebel area almost totally outside its control. Turkey on Friday warned against a regime offensive, while Russia indicated that it’s losing patience with the rebels. People in Syria’s northwest Idlib province are bracing themselves, for their fate now rests on the power games between Ankara and Moscow, and the ruthlessness of the regime in Damascus.
More than seven years into the conflict, half a million people are dead, more than 11 million out of a pre-war population of 20 million are displaced, the country lies in pieces, its social fabric has been torn apart and the regime shows no signs of ending its cruel practices. With Russia’s help, Al Assad has rolled back many of the losses suffered at the beginning of the war. The regime now controls about 60 per cent of Syria and 12 out of 14 provinces. The recapture of Idlib will be the final nail in the coffin of Syria’s rebellion.
Idlib is home to thousands of rebels who were sent there after surrendering during previous offensives by the regime in other parts of Syria. These rebels include extremists such as the Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) that dominate the province. Groups like HTS have been building defensive structures across the province, training new recruits and organising drills.
With the extremists promising to dig in and fight — the leader of Syria’s Al Qaida affiliate has said surrender amounts to ‘treason’ — there is a high likelihood of heavy casualties and destruction. The regime may adopt the brutal tactics of siege and indiscriminate killings it has employed elsewhere in Syria, notably in Eastern Ghouta earlier this year.
It is currently unclear what the immediate goals of the regime’s Idlib offensive will be. From Al Assad’s perspective, taking Idlib in its entirety will be a huge undertaking, in which it will likely encounter armed Turkish action. Ankara has at least a dozen military posts in the province.
It is clear that Al Assad is on track to winning Syria’s war. But his victory is hollow and has come at a terrible price. In the process, the country has lost sovereignty. The extent of the Idlib offensive could be decided, as with so many other things in Syria, by foreign powers — namely Turkey, Russia and Iran.
