First, the good news. Global trials of Coronavirus vaccine by AstraZeneca and Oxford University have shown encouraging results. The vaccine AZD1222 has produced virus neutralising antibodies in all age groups during trials conducted in several countries, including Japan, United Kingdom, Brazil, South Africa, India and the US. The data was shared in a closed-door meeting of academics early this week.
The data indicated that the vaccine produced the same antibody response in 56 to 70 year olds as young adults. This looks promising as most of the 1.15 million people who died due to the virus were older, an age group that is most vulnerable to the pandemic. Moreover, the vaccine trial data indicated fewer ‘reactogenicity’ or side effects among elderly volunteers.
How much a vaccine will cost and are governments ready to subsidise vaccines so that the poor of the world also get it? Unfortunately, we don’t have definite answers to any of these questions. Winning a war requires not just powerful weapons, you need a solid strategy and ability to deploy those weapons to the frontiers. Do we have all of this?
While the results are encouraging, it is too early to say that AZD1222 or any other vaccine will provide long lasting immunity from the pandemic. The vaccine trial data is of limited duration and more time is needed to see how long it will help sustain the neutralising response. For example, in India where AstraZeneca is testing the vaccine on 1,600 volunteers in the southern city of Mysuru, only 56 days of data is available.
Fast tracked trials
Second, even the most optimistic epidemiologists believe that vaccines, once approved, may not provide full immunity. In other words, a successful vaccine will not be a bulletproof jacket, at best it will reduce mortality and the severity of illness so that patients can avoid hospitalisation. Therefore, even if a vaccine is made available after fast tracked trials, it will just slow down the pandemic. AZD1222 is one of the dozens of candidates in advanced stage of trials. For example, 18 vaccine candidates are under evaluation as part of World Health Organisation (WHO) backed COVAX initiative, an alliance of almost 172 countries.
The world must have reasonable expectations on the efficacy and availability of a vaccine. While the epidemiologists have sounded a word of caution on the efficacy, Gulf News has been highlighting logistical challenges of distributing the vaccine. Are the governments ready to produce and distribute vaccines once they are approved? Do nations have cold chains in place to distribute them?
How much a vaccine will cost and are governments ready to subsidise vaccines so that the poor of the world also get it? Unfortunately, we don’t have definite answers to any of these questions. Winning a war requires not just powerful weapons, you need a solid strategy and ability to deploy those weapons to the frontiers. Do we have all of this?
