Newmarket, England: Just three weeks to go now. Dubai World Cup night is soon upon us. We are likely to see a wide open and competitive World Cup, supported by an excellent undercard filled with top class contests in seven other divisions.
To a seasoned racing man, Cigar’s win in the inaugural World Cup back in 1996 does not seem all that long ago, but Dubai’s principal sporting event certainly has come a long way since the famous champion defeated Burt Bacharach’s Soul of The Matter for a North American one-two at Nad Al Sheba 18 years ago.
Much has changed since those days. Not least the development of ‘Super Saturday’, the vital prep day to World Cup night. That’s where we are this week, and looking for pointers to the big day.
One of the main attractions on Saturday is the Jebel Hatta Sponsored by Emirates Airline (G1), a $300,000 (Dh1.1 million) contest staged over 1800 metres on the turf course. Designed as a race for horses hoping to get a crack at the Dubai Duty Free (G1), the Jebel Hatta also holds Group One status, and it is a top race in its own right.
The most likely favourite is the Mike de Kock trained Vercingetorix, named after a gallic tribal leader who stood up to Caesar’s legions. Vercingetorix is set to break from post two under Christophe Soumillon.
The five-year-old son of Silvano won the Daily News 2000 (G1) in South Africa last year and he was mildly impressive when winning a handicap over this course and distance in February. Seemingly not fully fit, he won well from Code Of Honour that day. Likely to have moved forward fitness-wise over the last three weeks, he has a good chance here. Though the competition is a great deal tougher.
He is set to meet Godolphin’s seasonal debutant Vancouverite, a Group 2 winner in France last year, and the rapidly improving mare L’Amour de Ma Vie, who had Flotilla and Certify behind her when winning the Balanchine (G2) over this trip on February 20. Her trainer Pia Brandt is trying to become the first female handler to win the Jebel Hatta. Saed Bin Surour, who saddles Quick Wit, has won the race four times, most recently with Sajjhaa, who went on to take the Duty Free.
The horse that could spoil the party for all of these is the David Simcock trained Trade Storm. He loves this course and, judged on his excellent run behind Mshawish in the Zabeel Mile (G2), Trade Storm has retained all his ability at the age of six. A winner of five races (two over this course), Trade Storm is a horse who likes to be right out the back early on, and come with a strong finish in the home straight. Such runners are compromised if the early leaders go slowly and have more in reserve at the business end of the race, but if they go too fast and tire at the end, well, then Trade Storm can pass them all. There isn’t a strong front-runner in this field, but a handful of horses prefer to race prominently, giving Trade Storm reason to hope for a decent pace.
Predicting the Jebel Hatta winner is not easy, and it makes more sense to look elsewhere for a ‘pick six banker’. Variety Club, favourite for the Burj Nahaar (G2) stands out as the most obvious winner this weekend. A champion in South Africa, he made a perfect seasonal debut at Meydan in February, when he justified favouritism in the Firebreak (G3). Variety Club led all the way for an easy win, chased home by Haatheq, Empire Storm and Capital Attraction. All these reoppose him in the Burj Nahaar, Capital Storm having given the form a boost by winning a strong handicap last Saturday. Variety Club, who took four Group One races in South Africa in 2012 and 2013, seems to be a worthy World Cup contender, but he is also one that it’s a little hard to assess in that context, since he has done his racing mainly at up to 1600 metres.
World Cup contenders meet in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round III (G1), run over the same 2000 metres as the $10 million event three weeks down the road, and Godophin’s African Story might be the one to beat here. A dual winner of the Godolphin Mile (G2), he ran on strongly at the finish of the second round of the series, and checked in second, 1 ¼ lengths behind Prince Bishop, who had the run of the race and got the lead rather easily 700 metres from the winning post. African Story has a good chance of turning the tables this time.
Shea Shea is favourite for the Meydan Sprint (G3), where he meets his arch rival Sole Power. Last year’s Godolphin Mile (G2) winner Soft Falling Rain is a very interesting runner in the Mahab Al Shimaal (G3), where he tries sprinting. The Dubai City of Gold (G2) has drawn a full field and looks wide open, though the Al Bastakiya (LR) seems easier to solve. Guineas runner-up Emirates Flyer and Meydan Classic winner He’s No Saint stand a good notch above the remainders in this race, where the winner at least is likely to proceed to the UAE Derby (G2).
Last, but by no means least, we need to touch on Super Saturday’s opener, the Al Maktoum Challenge III (G1) for Purebred Arabians. The field is classy, and brings out a strong French bred trio in Versac Py, Raaziq and Al Mamun Monlau. The winner is likely to be one of these, and Versac Py is marginally preferred, having run with such promise when returning to racing action in the second round, where he was beaten only by Rabbah De Carrere.
— Geir Stabell is the Editor of Globeform
www.stabell.co.uk
