Dubai: When looking to find the winner of the Dubai World Cup we have looked at the trends to try and help you pick a winner based on statistics.
Only 15 men on the planet have ridden a Dubai World Cup winner out of the hundred that have tried. Jerry Bailey is the one with most wins, four, in the great race.
USA-born jockeys have won the race on eight occasions and Mike Smith on Arrogate ticks this box. Of tonight’s jockeys, Fernando Jara (on Special Fighter) and Mickael Barzalona (Long River) have all won the race before, so the other eight will be looking to become the seventeenth man to ride the winner.
For trainers, if the word United is the first word of their country it is a good thing with UK, UAE and USA winning all but two of the runnings, with France and Japan proving the exception. Saeed Bin Surour is by far the most successful trainer of the race with seven wins and he is represented by Move Up.
Four American trainers have previously trained winners have runners in this race, with Bob Baffert twice (Arrogate and Hoppertunity). The other trainers will be hoping to become the fifteenth winning trainer.
Godolphin record
For owners, there is no doubt that Godolphin are the most successful with six victories, and they are represented tonight by Move Up. Michael Pegrum, who is part-owner of Hoppertunity, owned the 2001 winner Captain Steve. None of the other owners in tonight’s big race have owned a winner.
Where the horses have been bred is also a good insight. Most winners (10) have been bred in the USA and with over half the field (9/14) tonight being bred Stateside this trend looks like having a good chance of improving that trend.
The draw is always seen as critical, but Stall 11 (Neolithic) is the most successful with five winners and Stall 6 (Move Up) has had four winners jumping from there. Stalls 3, 4 and 9 have never produced a winner, so tonight they will be hoping to change this.
Four-year-old horses with nine wins have proved to be the most successful, and Lani, Gun Runner, Move Up, Arrogate, and Neolithic will be bidding to improve this record.
Five five-year-olds and four six-year-olds have won the race which covers most of the field with only Awardee and Long River, older at seven, bidding to become only the second seven-year-old winner.
On reflection of all the trends that we can take from the previous 21 Dubai World Cups one horse really stands out, and that is Arrogate.
However, because of all known form, jockey nationality and age, we are going to opt for Arrogate. Do not be surprised to see Arrogate trending on social networks! #Arrogate.
