London: Fortress Old Trafford, Chelsea's flat form and a welter of statistics point to Manchester United advancing to the semi-finals of the Champions League today — yet one goal changes the whole tie.
United hold the whip hand following Wayne Rooney's goal in their 1-0 quarter-final first-leg win at Stamford Bridge and in most circumstances in the Champions League and for United, that would be that.
Alex Ferguson's team have lost one of their last 30 matches in the competition at Old Trafford and none in the last six years. They have progressed in all 16 European ties where they won the first leg away from home.
This season they have conceded only two goals in nine Champions League games while in the Premier League they have won 15 and drawn one of their home games. Since the Champions league began only two sides have recovered from a first-leg home defeat to win a knockout tie — Ajax Amsterdam against Panathinaikos in 1996 and Inter Milan against Bayern Munich last month.
Yet the particular nature of this all-English tie means that such statistics are undermined in a game between two teams who know each other so well.
Although Chelsea have won only one of five away games in all-English Champions League ties, they won at Old Trafford in the Premier League a year ago and know that they need only one goal today to swing the advantage their way.
Hanging in there
Only two of the teams' last 12 competitive games have been decided by more than one goal so both sides know the Londoners are still very much in the tie.
"Of course Chelsea can do to us at Old Trafford what we've done there," said Ferguson. "We've only got a one-goal lead and we have to be very careful and give a top performance.
"It will be a tough game. The tie is not done." Ferguson had the luxury of making eight changes from the first leg for Saturday's Premier League game against Fulham and those on duty came through unscathed after a straightforward 2-0 win.
Antonio Valencia was on the scoresheet as he continues his rapid rehabilitation from a broken ankle to offer the manager plenty of attacking options after he decided to start with Nani on the bench at Stamford Bridge.
United looked sharper all over the pitch in that game but Chelsea could still easily have come away with a draw.
Playing on Tuesday
Manchester United v Chelsea
Misses next match if booked: John Obi Mikel, Ramires, Fernando Torres, Yuri Zhirkov (all Chelsea)
Shakhtar Donetsk v Barcelona
Suspended: Razvan Rat (Shakhtar Donetsk); Andres Iniesta (Barcelona)
Misses next match if booked: Oleksiy Gai, Luiz Adriano, Dmytro Chygrynskiy, Henrik Mkhitaryan, Darijo Srna, Yaroslav Rakitskiy (All Shakhtar Donetsk)
Playing on Wednesday
Schalke 04 v Inter Milan
Suspended: Cristian Chivu (Inter Milan); Jefferson Farfan (Schalke 04)
Misses next match if booked: Thiago Motta (Inter Milan); Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Manuel Jurado (Schalke 04)
Tottenham Hotspur v Real Madrid
Suspended: Pepe (Real Madrid); Peter Crouch (Tottenham Hotspur)
Misses next match if booked: Raul Albiol, Cristiano Ronaldo, Angel Di Maria, Sergio Ramos, Ricardo Carvalho (all Real Madrid)
