Rahul Gandhi simply doesn’t make the grade. Narendra Modi can’t get enough people to forgive him, much less join hands with him. Sonia Gandhi’s birthplace won’t let her be Prime Minister. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is building up a galloping momentum that has all the other parties running scared. J. Jayalalithaa has got her party to declare that she is eminently “qualified” to be PM, because she is, among other things, an “unparalleled patriot”. The strong woman of the North, Mayawati, is no less ambitious as she snaps at Mulayam Singh Yadav’s heels. In the East, Mamata Banerjee is waiting to see how the new wind blows, though her feud with the Congress remains.
These impressions underlie the battle for India 2014, which promises to be one big cacophonous free-for-all that is also expected to be an inflection point in the country’s history. At this juncture, most observers believe that no one party will get a clear majority. So alliances will be key, with regional supremos and Shylocks extracting their price. In short, it’s going to get downright messy.
Who should you keep your eyes on? We make it simpler for you with this guide to the key players.
The Tea Vendor vs the Reluctant Scion
NARENDRA MODI (63)
Otherwise known as: NaMo
Party: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Current status: Chief Minister of Gujarat
Lok Sabha constituency: Yet to be announced, but talk is that he might contest from two constituencies — Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s old seat of Lucknow and another in Gujarat.
Stands for: Hindu nationalism. Development. Business-friendly measures. A Congress-free India.
Why he’ll get votes: Proven administrative capabilities. Big business loves him. Places good public toilets above temples in his to-do list.
Why not: The ghost of Godhra and deeply disturbing doubts about his attitude towards minorities. He’s polarising, ruthless and has enemies even within his own party. Besides, the shadow of the RSS dogs him.
Most likely post-election scenario: The BJP is expected to win a considerable number of seats, but not enough for a majority. So Modi will have to work hard to gather enough allies. His communal ghosts will not make that task easy. But the man who was once a tea vendor at the Ahmedabad railway station might well propel himself to the swearing-in ceremony at Rashtrapati Bhavan.
RAHUL GANDHI (43)
Otherwise known as: RaGa, Rahul Baba
Party: Indian National Congress (Congress)
Current status: Lok Sabha MP; Congress Vice-President
Constituency: Amethi, Uttar Pradesh. There’s also talk of a second, most likely Chikmagalur where his grandmother Indira Gandhi contested in 1978.
Stands for: Secularism.
Reinventing the Congress. Of late and unconvincingly, anti-corruption measures. Above all, doing what Mummy thinks is good for the party and nation.
Why he’ll get votes: Because he’s a Gandhi and Congress-Gandhi devotees are blinded by loyalty.
Why not: Because he’s a Gandhi and India is tired of dynastic politics. Because he’s the unsuitable boy of Indian politics: deeply ambivalent about power and responsibility and reluctant to play the game of thrones. Has got used to being propped up and protected, especially when he doesn’t deliver.
Most likely post-election scenario: His party’s refusal to name him as its prime ministerial candidate openly leaves room to manoeuvre, but Rahul will most likely be thrust into the hot seat if the Congress can swing the numbers and convince its allies. After that, it’s anybody’s guess since the scion’s stand on most issues is sketchy or confused at best. But Mama will be around to guide him.
Mama, Amma, Behenji and Didi: The Strongwomen
SONIA GANDHI (67)
Otherwise known as: Madam, High Command
Party: Congress
Current status: Lok Sabha MP; Congress President
Constituency: Rae Bareli, Uttar Pradesh
Stands for: Secularism. Women’s empowerment. And, like a good Indian bahu, traditional Indian family values: the son inherits all.
Why she’ll get votes: No communal hate-mongering. Staunch supporter of the Women’s Reservation Bill. Doesn’t believe gay sex is a crime. Has declined the PM’s chair.
Why not: The price of everything, from onions to gold. The mind-boggling number of zeroes in all the recent scams. Dangerously populist measures. The hijacking of the Jan Lokpal Bill. Above all, India does not want Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister.
Most likely post-election scenario: The Congress will be battered, but its President will hold on grimly. If the Aam Aadmi Party puts a spoke in the BJP wheel, and the vote is hopelessly splintered, the Congress could cobble together a shaky government with support from perfidious or intransigent allies. Five more years of the same, did you say?
J. JAYALALITHA (65)
Otherwise known as: Amma, Puratchi Thalaivi (Revolutionary Leader)
Party: All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)
Current status: Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu
Lok Sabha constituency: If she contests, likely to be Trichy or Sriperumbudur.
Stands for: Tamil pride, which includes support for Tamils in Sri Lanka, and installing herself in the prime ministerial chair. Has fought long for greater autonomy for the states.
Why she’ll get votes: A firm administrator who does not mince her words or shy away from tough decisions. The freebies she hands out to the underprivileged have made her Amma, a universal mother.
Why not: The shadow of earlier corruption, the reinstatement of close aide Sasikala, her imperious ways.
Most likely post-election scenario: If she gets 25 to 30 seats, she will be a major player in the coalition stakes. She’s a tough negotiator, but her own prime ministerial ambitions could pose a dilemma.
MAYAWATI (58)
Otherwise known as: Behenji
Party: Bahujan Samaj Party: (BSP)
Current Status: Chairperson, BSP; Rajya Sabha MP; hence, unlikely to contest
Stands for: Dalit pride and welfare. Statues — of herself and mentor Kanshi Ram.
Why she may come up trumps: She’s undoubtedly the leading Dalit leader today.
Why not: Has been hounded by accusations of large-scale corruption, self-promotion and megalomania. And the country certainly does not need any more statues of Behenji.
Most likely post-election scenario: Though her popularity has taken a beating, that of her UP rivals Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh have taken one, too. She could be a key player if her party gets 20 seats or more. But, Behenji is a canny operator and will drive a hard bargain.
MAMATA BANERJEE (59)
Otherwise known as: Didi
Party: All India Trinamool Congress (TMC)
Current status: Chief Minister of West Bengal; hence unlikely to contest
Assembly constituency: Kolkata Dakshin, West Bengal
Stands for: Personal probity, being one with the masses, pro-poor measures. Also, bandhs and hartals.
Why she may come up trumps: She’s been rated one of India’s cleanest politicians. Has an austere dress code and no-frills lifestyle. Has made the humble hawai chappal a style statement.
Why not: Mercurial, intolerant of criticism, loves a good street scrap. Holds her arch enemy, the CPI (M) responsible for everything from rape to alleged assassination attempts on her. Big business is wary of her.
Most likely post-election scenario: The TMC could get 15 seats or more and will be wooed for coalitions. But Didi is not too reliable an ally as the Congress has discovered, and she will not join hands with them, so her options are rather limited.
The game changers
ARVIND KEJRIWAL (45)
Party: Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)
Current status: Chief Minister, Delhi
Assembly constituency: Assembly and likely Lok Sabha constituency: New Delhi
Stands for: Hope. Clean politics. Transparency. Readiness to reach out to the people.
Why he may come up trumps: The scale of his party’s success in the Delhi Assembly elections has inspired Indians who had practically abandoned hope in the system. Hundreds of thousands of volunteers have signed up, broadening the party’s reach.
Why not: Can it shed its mildly chaotic functioning style? Can it manage the infighting and rebellion in the ranks? Can it gather the resources and manpower needed to spread out across India? And can it live up to the promises and hype?
Most likely post-election scenario: So much has happened so soon for the AAP that predictions vary wildly — from the euphoric to the cynical. Kejriwal has declared he’s not interested in becoming PM. That could be a dampener. But the AAP is bound to eat into the BJP’s votes, making the latter’s task that much tougher and queering the numbers game, much as they did in Delhi. Regardless of the number of seats it wins, though, the AAP impact will be felt across India.
KUMAR VISHWAS (43)
Party: AAP
Current status: Member, National Executive of the AAP
Lok Sabha constituency: Amethi, Uttar Pradesh
Stands for: The vote against dynastic politics.
Why he’ll get votes: By taking on Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, he has become a symbol of the AAP challenge and of the country’s revolt against the feudalism of the Gandhi dynasty.
Why not: Amethi is a pampered constituency, used to the largesse of the Gandhis. This poet will need to string more than clever words to oust a Gandhi.
Most likely post-election scenario: If he does defeat Rahul Gandhi, it will be the upset of the elections and a body blow to the Congress. But the Congress will go all out to protect its scion.
The loyalists
P. CHIDAMBARAM (68)
Otherwise known as: Chiddu
Party: Congress
Current Status: Lok Sabha MP, Union Minister of Finance
Constituency: Sivaganga, Tamil Nadu
Stands for: Survival in the Congress. Corporate interests. Has made a style statement of the south Indian veshti.
Why he’ll get votes: Continuity; ministerial constituencies get used to political and press attention.
Why not: The economy isn’t exactly performing brilliantly on his watch. His tenure as Home Minister was not illustrious either. Faces allegations of wrongdoing in the 2G scam, and corporate favours handed out to his son Karti.
Most likely post-election scenario: May not return as Finance Minister even if the Congress forms the government.
DIGVIJAY SINGH (66)
Otherwise known as: Diggy Raja
Party: Congress
Current Status: Congress General Secretary
Lok Sabha constituency: Yet to be announced, though he’s declared his readiness to join the fray.
Stands for: Political strategising; voicing dissent or at least, a contrary view, in the Congress
Why he’ll get votes: He’s supremely savvy, a good administrator and not afraid to speak his mind.
Why not: Hasn’t contested since 2003 when he lost in the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections and swore not to contest any polls for 10 years. Despite his organisational skills, hasn’t been able to bring the Congress to power in his home state.
Most likely post-election scenario: If he wins, his unswerving loyalty to the Gandhi family should get him a key post.
SHASHI THAROOR (57)
Party: Congress
Current Status: Lok Sabha MP, Minister of State for Human Resource Development.
Constituency: Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala
Stands for: Erudition in politics and now, alas, for the perils of a celebrity marriage.
Why he’ll get votes: His popularity in his constituency. But wife Sunanda Pushkar’s disturbing death could go either way at the polls, depending on how matters unravel.
Why not: Pushkar’s death and his alleged affair with Pakistani journalist Mehr Tarar will take their toll.
Most likely post-election scenario: Even if he wins, and the Congress forms the government, it’s unlikely he will retain his ministership.
The shaky coalition partner
MULAYAM SINGH YADAV (74)
Party: Samajwadi Party (SP)
Current status: Lok Sabha MP, Party Chief
Constituency: Mainpuri, Uttar Pradesh
Stands for: A feudal style of government that seems to have an abiding disregard for the rule of law.
Why he’ll get votes: In the badlands of Uttar Pradesh, citizens are used to, and in some cases, even approve of, a rough ‘n’ ready form of government and justice.
Why not: For all the reasons above, plus corruption charges.
Most likely post-election scenario: Anti-incumbency is going to hit the SP hard, but if it manages to get 10-15 seats, it could be a valuable coalition partner. If anybody is ready to take that risk, given the party’s flip-flop record.
Mr Professional
NANDAN NILEKANI (58)
Party: Expected to contest on a Congress ticket
Current Status: Chairman of the Unique Identification Authority of India.
Constituency: By all reckoning, Bengaluru South, Karnataka.
Stands for: Zero corruption. Commitment. Professional efficiency.
Why he’ll get votes: He is the embodiment of middle-class professional aspirations. As co-founder of software giant Infosys, he has an impeccably clean track record. His work on the Aadhar card, the world’s largest biometric data collection programme, has earned him much professional respect.
Why not: There has been criticism that the Aadhar card does not safeguard individual privacy.
Most likely post-election scenario: If he wins, he should be in the running for a ministerial berth.
The big sulks
SUSHMA SWARAJ (61)
Party: BJP
Current status: Lok Sabha MP; Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha.
Constituency: Vidisha, Madhya Pradesh.
Stands for: The saffron philosophy; women’s empowerment.
Why she’ll get votes: A seasoned player and administrator. Speaks her mind and is a compelling orator. Has a band of supporters within and outside the party who prefer her to NaMo. Has made sleeveless jackets worn over saris her style statement.
Why not: Not known for liberal views; harps a bit too much on Indian culture for some people’s comfort.
Most likely post-election scenario: Should have a big say in government formation if the BJP gets there. And if Narendra Modi is feeling generous. After leaning towards L. K. Advani and not Modi, Swaraj had to toe the party line and squash her own prime ministerial ambitions (she has been Chief Minister of Delhi, after all). She will demand her pound of flesh if the BJP hits pay dirt.
LAL KRISHNA ADVANI (86)
Party: Bharatiya Janata Party
Current status: Lok Sabha MP; disgruntled-eminence grise of the BJP.
Constituency: Gandhinagar, Gujarat.
Stands for: Hindutva.
Why he’ll get votes: He’s the Grand Old Man of the BJP.
Why not: Has been ousted as the party’s PM candidate by NaMo and been sulking in a manner that does not befit his Grand Old Man status.
Most likely post-election scenario: Will be given a token hand in the decision-making process if the BJP gets to form a government.
Thank God they are young
JYOTIRADITYA SCINDIA (43), SACHIN PILOT (36)
Party: Congress
Current status: Lok Sabha MPs
Constituencies: Guna, Madhya Pradesh; Ajmer, Rajasthan
Stand for: Youth. Quiet efficiency. A clean image. Keeping a low-profile.
Why they’ll get votes: For all the reasons above.
Why not: No good reason, really. These are the kind of young politicians India needs.
Most likely post-election scenario: If the Congress forms the government, they could find ministerial berths again, as part of Rahul Gandhi’s core team.
Useful allies
JAGANMOHAN REDDY (41)
Whether the formation of the state of Telengana goes through or not, the proposal has royally split the vote in Andhra Pradesh. While the Telengana Rashtra Samithi has a one-point agenda, current Chief Minister Jaganmohan Reddy and his YSR Congress party are in an aggressive mood and keeping their options open. Meanwhile, Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party, eager to make a comeback, is gearing up for 2014. As of now, it looks like advantage BJP when it comes to an Andhra alliance.
LALU PRASAD YADAV (66)
Lalu Prasad Yadav may be out of the reckoning after being disqualified as MP and barred from contesting elections. But his Rashtriya Janata Dal is no pushover in Bihar. If his seats get into double digits, he might regain some power.
MUTHUVEL KARUNANIDHI (89)
Muthuvel Karunanidhi’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhalagam is not expected to do too well in Tamil Nadu. And it is seriously scam-tainted. But the stakes are high and if it can get even five to 10 seats, they could come in useful.
NITISH KUMAR (62)
Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) is on a good wicket, having worked a near-miracle in governance and the law and order situation in Bihar. Since his party will not ally with the BJP, Nitish Kumar and his plump bag of seats will be much in demand.
Kingmaker who would be king
SHARAD PAWAR (73)
Party: Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
Current status: NCP president. MP from Madha, Maharashtra. However, has announced he will not contest the 2014 elections.
Stands for: The agricultural sector. The sugar lobby. Big business.
Why he may come up trumps: Big business and one section of Maharashtra’s farmers will not let him and his party down.
Why not: Onion and vegetable prices on his watch as Union Agriculture Minister. Too much time spent on cricket politics while farmers commit suicide.
Most likely post-election scenario: The NCP is not likely to get more than five seats, but the party’s value lies in its seemingly inexhaustible election fund kitty, Pawar’s extensive political connections and his ability to put together alliances. Though he denies it, he still dreams of becoming PM. He knows this could be his last chance.
It’s showbiz!
VIJAYASHANTI (49)
Also known as: Lady Amitabh
Party: Said to be heading for the Congress after her recent expulsion from the Telengana Rashtra Samithi.
Current status: Lok Sabha MP
Constituency: Yet to be announced, but the actress is keen on her present one, Medak.
Stands for: Statehood for Telengana.
Why she’ll get votes: Has fought long for a separate state for Telengana. Knows how to work the crowds.
Why not: A party-hopper. She joined the BJP in 1997, quit in 2005 and formed her own outfit, the Talli Telangana Party. In 2009, she merged her party with the Telengana Rashtra Samithi. Was expelled from it this year for “anti-party activities”.
Most likely post-election scenario: Is likely to win if she does get the go-ahead from the Congress for Medak.
SHATRUGHAN SINHA (68)
Otherwise known as: Shotgun
Party: BJP
Current Status: Lok Sabha MP
Constituency: Patna Sahib, Bihar
Stands for: The underdog. And, in keeping with his party’s philosophy, traditional Indian values.
Why he’ll get votes: He’s a seasoned politician, with two Rajya Sabha terms and a stint as a Union Minister. Is a good orator. And of course, he’s a film star.
Why not: Still has a leg firmly in the film industry. Switched sides within the party recently.
Most likely post-election scenario: Likely to get re-elected — if Narendra Modi offers him a ticket. In August 2013, he declared that he approved of NaMo’s bête noire, Nitish Kumar as a prime ministerial candidate. He also pitched his tent in mentor L.K. Advani’s camp. But two months later, he did a volte-face and sidled up to Narendra Modi. He’ll soon find out if that last move helped.
RAJ BABBAR (61)
Party: Congress
Current Status: Lok Sabha MP
Constituency: Firozabad, Uttar Pradesh
Stands for: Socialist beliefs as enunciated by Ram Manohar Lohia and Jayaprakash Narayan.
Why he’ll get votes: A four-time MP, he’s one of those film stars who take his politics seriously.
Why not: Famously claimed during the debate over the poverty line that you could get a full meal for Rs12 (Dh0.71) in Mumbai (and retracted the statement later).
Most likely post-election scenario: Could win for the fifth time.
DIVYA SPANDANA (31)
Otherwise known as: Ramya
Party: Congress
Current status: Lok Sabha MP
Constituency: Mandya, Karnataka
Stands for: Youth, a rare commodity in the current Lok Sabha. She’s the youngest woman in Parliament.
Why she’ll get votes: See above
Why not: Hasn’t been tested enough.
Most likely post-election scenario: Could retain her seat since she won in a by-election in August 2013.
Will they or won’t they?
SUDEEP (40)
Political rumours have been swirling around the actor since last year, when he was said to be talking to the BJP before the State Assembly polls. This year, the rumours have shifted to the Congress, which is said to be wooing him seriously and fielding him from a Bengaluru constituency.
ANIL KUMBLE (43)
The BJP is said to be wooing the soft-spoken former Indian cricket captain Anil Kumble, who, the rumours insist, will be fielded against Nandan Nilekani by the BJP. If that does happen, it promises to be a high-profile tussle. .
