8 billion people today: 9 billion by 2038, 10 billion to come sooner than expected
Global population to peak at 10.3 billion sooner than expect, aging trend accelerates: UN
The global population is now expected to hit its peak in the mid-2080s at around 10.3 billion people. Reaching this milestone earlier than expected comes with a number of implications.
Is the global demographics about to change forever?
The latest UN projection of “peak humanity" is a lower number than initially projected in 2014. From that point – and given the spike in aging population – human population will dip slightly to 10.2 billion by the end of the 21st century.
A gradual decline is expected afterwards.
Key numbers
These are some of the key numbers, based on the latest UN Population Fund's (UNFPA) 2024 State of World Population Report:
Source: United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) State of World Population - 2024
Demographic evolution
The downward UN revision of “peak population” projection from the previous estimate of 10.4 billion in 2086, was made in the latest World Population Prospects 2024 report.
It details the most recent data and projections of the UN Population Division, the leading source for global population estimates and projections.
“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years,” said Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
“However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person,” the official said.
Earlier peak
He said the unexpected population peak stems from several factors that include:
‘Peak human’ to come sooner
According to another estimate, however, “peak human” – when living human population is at its highest – will occur around 2060.
University of Pennsylvania, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde projects that a peak of around 9.2 billion people in about 36 years, before it starts to fall.
For the very first time in the history of humanity — humans have been around for 200,000 years — we are below replacement rate in terms of fertility. My argument is the United Nations is underestimating how fast fertility is falling. Instead of [the UN forecast of a peak of 10.4 billion in] 2084, I’m pushing this to 2060, let’s say [with] a peak around 9.2 billion, 9.1 billion, and then we are going to start falling.Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, economist, University of Pennsylvania
Moreover, living in cities often leads to delayed childbearing and smaller families due to economic factors and lifestyle changes. The financial burden of raising children, especially in developed countries, also discourages some couples from having larger families.
Likewise, advances in medicine and healthcare are contributing to lower infant mortality rates – meaning a larger portion of children born survive to adulthood.
This can lead to a smaller need for larger families to ensure offspring survive. Social norms are also changing, such that in some cultures, the traditional emphasis on large families is decreasing.
Population replacement rate
• The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) projects that the global population — is already below replacement rate. • Which means that the world population will start falling some moment around the late 2050s to early 2060s. • This, however, depends on how people will react over the next few decades, and how mortality will evolve.
Countries with peak population
Our World in Data, run by researchers at the University of Oxford, provides population data visualisations. It estimates that about 28 percent of the world’s population – more than one out of four – now lives in one of 63 countries or areas where the population has already peaked, including:
Nearly 50 other countries should join that group over the next 30 years, including Brazil, Iran and Turkey, according to the report
Where population will continue to grow
Population growth will continue in more than 120 countries beyond 2054. These include:
South Asia population growth
India: India's population is projected to continue growing rapidly, potentially surpassing China as the world's most populous country in the coming years.
Pakistan: Pakistan's population is also projected to continue growing, although at a slower pace than some of its sub-Saharan African counterparts.
Meanwhile, the rise in global life expectancy — initially disrupted by the Covid pandemic — has resumed, with an average of 73.3 years of longevity in 2024. It will average 77.4 years in 2054, the UN agency reported.
Tech advancements
Significant advances in food production would continue to optimise efficiency, boost yields and sustainable practices to help communities manage resource limitations, nature's wrath and environmental challenges.
Innovations in controlled-environment cultivation, precision agriculture, robotics/automation, vertical farming, improved irrigation and plant varieties, cover cropping, aqua/hydropinics, integrated pest management, yield-enhancing technologies – can greatly help humanity develop more efficient food production, resource management, and renewable energy sources to address potential shortages.
As global population growth slows down, it could potentially mitigate some concerns about the rapid population growth experienced in the past century.
The key lies in sustainable practices, resource management, and technological advancements to ensure a future where a larger population can coexist with a healthy planet.
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