It is evident now, as it has been for months, that the upcoming November US election will see a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Their respective Super Tuesday victories in the primaries have sealed this outcome. Barring any shock developments, the election is all set to be between these two men.
So what were the major takeaways from the key states? Donald Trump is now polling ahead of Biden in key surveys among voters. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows that concerns about Biden’s age have only intensified with a majority of those who supported him in 2020 now saying his age is a worry.
The President is 81 and his age is clearly playing on the minds of voters. The survey found that 61 per cent of those who voted for him earlier now feel he is “just too old” for the job.
Winning over moderate Republicans
Worryingly for the Democrats the concerns about Biden’s age cut across age groups, genders and race. 73% of all registered voters said he was too old to be effective. Surprisingly, even though the US economy has been doing better with less inflation and more jobs, that is not helping Biden at the moment.
The NYT/Siena poll found that only 26% of registered voters nationwide believe the economy is good or excellent, and even though that’s higher than last July’s poll, most of that jump has been among older Democrats who are already committed Biden supporters. While Trump is not exactly as spring chicken at 77, he has managed to make Biden’s age a major issue.
However, things are not that rosy for the Trump camp either. While he may lock in the nomination in a matter of days, a close look at the Super Tuesday primary data shows that Trump has overwhelming support from his committed Republican base which is mostly voters without college degrees. But more moderate Republicans are still wary of bringing him back to the White House.
Protest vote against Biden
However, moderates don’t have a very big role in the primaries as they make up only about 20% of the vote. But in a closer general election, they could make a big difference to Trump’s campaign. So while Trump may clinch the Republican nomination because of his base, to actually win the election against Biden, he will have to broaden his appeal.
For Joe Biden, the warning signs have come from younger voters in particular and Arab Americans (like in the crucial state of Michigan) who are unhappy with his support for Israel and its bombardment of Gaza. This time on Super Tuesday too, nearly 20 per cent of Democrats in Minnesota voted “uncommitted”, a protest vote against Mr. Biden’s Israel policy.
North Carolina also saw a significant vote on these lines. Again, in a close election in November, these voters will matter. Biden will likely see another significant protest vote in Washington State in a few days.
Immigration, border security and the economy are some of the key issues on which Trump is getting support from his base. Biden is making this election about preserving America’s democracy.
The battle has now truly begun.
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