The Japan conundrum
How does a new president signal that he sees America's ties with China as the pivotal relationship of his administration's foreign policy? Easy. He bestows upon the prime minister of Japan the honour of being the first foreign leader to be received in Washington.
Such was the diplomatic feint that last week saw a beleaguered Taro Aso steal the prize in the scramble to be first across the threshold of Barack Obama's White House. Britain's Gordon Brown, another weakened leader every bit as eager to cuddle up close to the US president, must wait until March 3.
On the face of it, the trip could scarcely have been a more welcome respite for Aso. His standing in the opinion polls mirrors the dire condition of Japan's economy. Last week came news that the economy had shrunk by more than 3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008. Then a couple of days ago followed confirmation of a collapse in the country's exports.
Aso's premiership is on life support. Chosen only a few months ago to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic party into the election due by this autumn, his ratings have hit single figures.
For all its troubles, Japan still confounds the foreign visitor expecting to find a country ravaged by the decade lost to the economic depression of the 1990s. It remains a visibly prosperous and orderly society.
Last weekend I attended a conference in Odawara held by the UK-Japan 21st Century Group. The conversations and debate among business leaders, diplomats and politicians reminded me that Japan still has many of the world's best companies and the most advanced technologies.
Toyota may be about to lose money for the first time in its history - but compare the products of the Japanese carmaker with those of, say, General Motors or Chrysler. Japan is among the hardest hit by the global crisis because it manufactures much of what, in normal times, the rest of the world wants to buy. We sometimes forget that it remains the world's second largest economy.
Yet back in Tokyo, the angst among the political classes was palpable. Senior figures suggest Aso might not last even until the election. The forced resignation of his finance minister - alleged to have been drunk at a meeting in Rome of the Group of Seven industrial nations - heaped further humiliation on the government.
As one shrewd observer reminded me, Japan has had 10 prime ministers during the past 15 years. If the relatively successful premiership of Junichiro Koizumi is subtracted from the list, the longevity of these leaders has averaged something around a year.
In the circumstances then, Obama was generous as well as gracious. Japan, the president said, was a "cornerstone of security as well as one of our strongest economic partners".
Hillary Clinton offered the same public reassurance when she made Tokyo the first stop on her inaugural trip as Secretary of State.
Japan remains America's closest friend, sheltered by a US security guarantee. But Washington's most important relationship is now with China.
On the Chinese leg of her Asian trip, Clinton conspicuously refrained from the criticisms of Beijing's human rights record that have previously infused her assessments of Sino-American relations. Instead, she said that US concerns on these issues must not be allowed to get in the way of closer collaboration with China.
Yet Japan's insecurity about US intent mirrors its own ambivalences and hesitations as much as events beyond its control. Relative economic decline has drained the country's confidence. Political paralysis at home encourages retreat from the world beyond. Japan fears greatly China's rise, but, beyond seeking reassurance from the US, has no answer to it.
The overall impression is of a country that wants the world to be as it was: with Japan, in spite of its geography, swaddled in the embrace of the like-minded democracies of the West. That era has passed. Japan, like everyone else, has eventually to adjust. Not yet. Some time ago I wrote that Japan, lacking a compass, had yet to find its place in the new geopolitical landscape. It seems that it is still looking.
-Financial Times
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