Nobody in Lebanon knows for sure when the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) will issue its indictments over the 2005 murder of ex-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. What we do know, however, is that the STL's registrar Herman von Hebel spoke from the court's headquarters in the Netherlands last week saying that a draft indictment was going to be sent to the pre-trial judge "very, very soon". Sources in Lebanon expect "soon" to mean any time between now and late January 2011.

Michel Aoun, head of the Free Patriotic Movement and a strong ally of Hezbollah, said that he expected the indictments to come out after holidays in Europe come to an end on January 6. If these indictments name Hezbollah members in the Hariri Affair, Aoun warned that the response would be "as strong as the attack" while Hasan Nasrallah said that the STL was an American-Israeli "conspiracy" aimed at targeting the reputation, future and legacy of the Lebanese resistance.

Members of the pro-Western March 14 Coalition, which gave birth to the STL several years ago, are still overwhelmingly in favour of it, while the entire Hezbollah-led opposition echoes Nasrallah's accusations.

Although there have been warnings in Beirut since early summer, they became especially alarming last November when STL judges met to draft changes in the bylaws of the Hariri Court. In Article 76, it used to say that the accusations need to be presented to the accused "in person whenever possible" whereas according to the amendments, they now have to be presented to the state in which the accused are residing, and in turn, that state would be held responsible for bringing them to international justice.

In this case, this would put the full weight on the Lebanese state, forcing it to officially receive warrants naming members of Hezbollah (if the indictments do name them in future), something that Lebanese officialdom simply cannot, and will not, shoulder. Lebanon or for that matter any state that has pledged to cooperate with the STL, needs to tell the Court about the progress made in informing the accused about their warrants, with a grace period of 30 days.

Deadline

Additionally it now says that after the indictments are issued, no more than two months should pass before the trial of the accused begins, either in person or in absence, drowning all speculation that it could take years for the trials to begin, after the indictments are issued.

These changes, as far as the Lebanese are concerned, will make it more difficult for the Beirut government to distance itself from the indictments or verdicts, when they are passed, making it all the more urgent for a deal to be hammered out as of today, prior to the indictments. According to sources in Beirut, "intensive" pressure is being applied on Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri's coalition by US Undersecretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman, an ardent supporter of the STL, to refuse any deal with Hezbollah, prior to the indictments.

Optimists in Lebanon are still pinning hopes on Syrian-Saudi dialogue and French support for a peaceful solution. Saudi Arabia is now reportedly convinced by Hezbollah's argument, namely that there are no chances for dialogue after the indictments are issued. Meaning if it wants to save its ally Hariri and shelter Lebanon from slipping into chaos that has to be done now, before the indictments are issued.

Hezbollah says that any deal needs to put an end, once and for all, to the STL and kill whatever chances there might be in the future of resurrecting the Hariri Affair, either as a tool against Hezbollah or against Syria.

What the Hezbollah-led opposition is aiming for is an announcement from Hariri that his government relinquishes all previous commitments made to the STL through a parliamentary vote, thereby relieving the Lebanese government from any political, financial, legal, or moral obligation to uphold the verdicts of the STL. In return for this action, all players in Lebanon would cooperate in empowering Hariri, especially the Hezbollah-led opposition, to make sure that his position is maintained both as Prime Minister and as leader of Lebanese Sunnis, in a manner that is approved by the Saudis.

A guarantee from Hariri will follow, that the arms, existence, legacy and reputation of Hezbollah are non-negotiable and will no longer be debated. A truce between all players will then be agreed upon, which will last until the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.

Options

Given that the date of the indictments is unknown, and all media talk of them being "just around the corner" nobody knows if any of those ideas are simply "wishful thinking" or whether it is already too late for a deal in Lebanon.

The continued absence of the Saudi monarch is very alarming to the Lebanese. So is the fact that both camps insist on their positions vis-a-vis the STL. Ordinary Lebanese were relieved when top prosecutor Daniel Bellemare actually went off on his Christmas holiday this week, a signal that no indictments were coming out before January. From where things stand today, no breakthrough is on the horizon, and despite a relatively calm Christmas, the Lebanese might be in store for a very tense and explosive 2011.

 

- Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.