Obama has little to worry

It's almost May. Six months to go until the only presidential poll that counts. Worries abound in President Barack Obama's camp: Large Democratic donors have dried up, the fragile economic recovery is looking weaker, independents are, well, being independent, and the Republicans have finally found their nominee and maybe their voice too. Worrying about getting re-elected is part of a president's job description, but this president really shouldn't be all that concerned. The election is bound to be closer than in 2008, but when it's over, Obama is likely to emerge winner. Here are the top five reasons why.

1. Americans are re-electing imperfect and flawed presidents. I know it's going to come as a shocker, but Obama hasn't been a great president in his first term and is unlikely to be one in his second. His two claims to fame — saving the economy from another Great Depression and passing his signature health-care legislation — won't get him there. The first will largely be taken for granted, and the second is still a very uncertain and untested proposition. The president's foreign policy has been very competent, but aside from the killing of Osama Bin Laden, it has had no spectacular successes.

The last two US presidents — Bill Clinton and George W. Bush — were re-elected comfortably, and neither could hardly be considered a candidate for the presidential hall of fame. Both were flawed and imperfect men: Obama's predecessor was below average; Clinton clearly above average. That's about where Obama falls too. Consider this: Since Franklin D. Roosevelt, the US has had four presidents who served out two terms: Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Bush.

2. Obama has history on his side. Since 1980, only one US president has failed to gain a second term. That was George H.W. Bush, who defied the odds by succeeding a two-term president of the same party. Since FDR, this has happened only once. It's a tough hill to climb. Americans generally tire of too much single-party dominance. Indeed, that's why Secretary of State Hillary Clinton should take a very hard look at her chances in 2016 — should Obama be re-elected. A set of three presidents — Clinton, Bush and perhaps Obama — is hardly a valid statistical sample, but it does tell you something about the power of the incumbent. It's hard to defeat a sitting president. Although a bad economy offsets some of the incumbent's advantage, Americans tend to get comfortable with their presidents.

Overrated quality

As Americans watch their politics implode, they seem to be seeking a measure of stability in the one institution that they all have responsibility for shaping — the presidency. In these turbulent times, Americans tend to stay with their guys, flawed as those guys may be. Should Obama be re-elected, it will only be the second time in US history that America has had three two-term presidents in a row. The last time? Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe.

3. The guy's a mensch (kind of). When Americans choose a president, they do so partly on the basis that they're inviting him (or her, someday) to be part of their lives for four and possibly eight years. This means being able to like the person and be comfortable with him. Forget whether the candidate is brilliant — the most overrated quality in the presidency. Can he be trusted? Is he trying to do the right thing? Is he arrogant and out of touch, or likeable and down to earth? Can one imagine spending an hour with the president and not having to look down at one's shoes for the entire conversation? Think about whom you'd want to spend time with: Clinton or Bob Dole; Reagan or Jimmy Carter. If the president has a normal family life, that helps too, particularly if he's got a cool wife, cute kids, and a dog. Obama can appear detached, even cold, at times. More often, though, he's accessible and sincere. But back on planet Earth, most Americans, according to recent polling, see him as more likable, more in touch with the needs of average people, than Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Are you in balance? Can you relate to others, keep your demons and insecurities under control, and stay out of trouble? Obama gets high marks in this important category.

4. The Republicans are weak and divided. Republicans will come together because they need to defeat Obama. But the gaps between the Republican base and the centrists are huge; the obsession with social issues risks alienating independents; there are real doubts that Romney is conservative enough; and there's not much enthusiasm for his stiff style on the campaign trail. All this is creating real trouble for a party that seems to have lost its way. Add to that Republican difficulties in making inroads with women and Hispanics, and you might conclude that the election is Obama's to lose.

5. The economy: bad, but Obama wins on points. Clearly, much will depend on how voters perceive their economic reality closer to the election. Obama really isn't running against Romney — he's running against the economy. By the fall, it's likely that about the best he'll have to show is a weak recovery. Still, when Americans vote for a president, they ask themselves two questions: To what degree is the guy in the White House responsible for my misery? And if I vote for the other guy, can he really make it better?

Barring another economic meltdown, I'm betting that enough Americans will conclude that things are getting better, albeit slowly; that Obama is doing the best job he can under tough circumstances; that the president is much more attuned to those who are suffering; and that the Republicans have neither better answers on the economy nor a candidate worth giving the benefit of the doubt. So don't worry too much, Mr President. You may not be getting into the presidential hall of fame, but it looks like you're going to get another shot to try.

— Washington Post

Aaron David Miller is a distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars. His new book, Can America Have Another Great President?, will be published this year.