If there is one thing you can expect with Arvind Kejriwal, it is to expect the unexpected. Aam Aadmi party leader stunned everyone by resigning as the Chief Minister of Delhi just days after being released on bail in an alleged corruption case.
His trusted aide Atishi Marlena is the new chief minister of Delhi as the national capital prepares for assembly polls which are due by February next year. The question is — why did Kejriwal take this drastic step and will it help him or hurt him? Kejriwal thrives on drama and this latest move is no different. Theatrics are part of his political persona.
The resignation is a bid to cast himself as a martyr, a victim of the BJP’s vendetta who was wrongly jailed for nearly 6 months and finally set free on bail by the country’s top court.
For a party which came to power on an anti corruption plank, challenging the BJP narrative about its top leaders is a key issue ahead of the elections. Several top AAP leaders have either been in jail on corruption allegations or still are.
And while there is truth to the vendetta charges to some extent, many in Delhi believe the sheen of the AAP has worn off a bit with so many charges against them. Kejriwal is trying to seize the narrative back but it’s a gamble. Theatrics may not have the desired impact this time.
The fact is his imprisonment did not lead to any sympathy wave for the AAP in the general elections. The party lost all the Lok Sabha seats to the BJP. The assembly is of course a different ball game and one where the BJP has been weaker. There is no doubt that Kejriwal’s resignation has unsettled the BJP in Delhi, which was not expecting this at all.
The party is now redrawing its strategy to take on the AAP. For the AAP, the fact that barring one person, all accused in the Delhi liquor policy case are now out on bail helps boost its argument that the Enforcement Directorate’s case is politically motivated. Getting bail in ED cases is almost next to impossible otherwise.
Kejriwal has made the upcoming polls a referendum on his innocence and that of his deputy Manish Sisodia, who spent 17 months in jail in the same case. But many questions come to mind. Why didn’t Kejriwal resign as Chief Minister when he was in jail, when he was unable to discharge his duties and brought governance in Delhi to a standstill? Why do it now if it’s not just for political grandstanding?
AAP’s prospects in Haryana?
His first big political test will be in Haryana which goes to the polls on October 5. Talks with the Congress in the state have failed and the AAP is contesting on its own. It did not do well in the last state polls in 2019 and did not make any great gains in the recent Lok Sabha polls. Will Kejriwal’s release make a change in the AAP’s prospects in Haryana?
We will have to wait and see but the contest has essentially boiled down to one between the BJP and the Congress. Kejriwal is also hoping the Delhi polls will be advanced to be held along with Maharashtra in November.
So far that prospect seems unlikely and a long gap till the elections could erode some of the sympathy factor he’s hoping for. Finally, there is the gamble of appointing someone else in the Chief Minister’s chair.
As Hemant Soren learnt the hard way in Jharkhand, it is a move that can backfire as new power centres and ambitions emerge. So far, Atishi has shown total devotion to her boss but it is early days. The next few weeks and months will put Kejriwal to the test.
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