Congress has much to learn from Kejriwal

A recent round of provincial polls dubbed semi-finals ahead of India’s general elections due next year gave a clear indication which way the wind is blowing. Tired of years of corruption-ridden governance, high inflation and policy paralysis, voters have unequivocally given their verdict — India’s grand old Congress party must be booted out.

People in four out of five states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgargh and Delhi — that went to polls early this month voted against Congress and in favour of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The victory has given a massive push to right-wing nationalist and BJP’s prime ministerial hopeful Narendra Modi who is seeking to dislodge centre-left Congress in April-May 2014 parliamentary elections.

The Congress was rejected by voters in Rajasthan where chief minister Ashok Gehlot had distributed free medicines, laptops to the poor and taken up a number of development projects. The party ended up with just 21 out of 200 seats. The BJP, led by former royalty Vasundhara Raje Scindia won 162 seats. Similarly, in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, incumbent leader Shivraj Singh Chauhan led BJP to a massive victory with 165 seats against Congress’ 58 in a 230-seat house. Chauhan’s BJP colleague in Chhattisgarh, Raman Singh also fought anti-incumbency to end up with 49 seats out of 70. Congress managed to secure Mizoram, a tiny Christian-dominated state in the north-eastern of tip of India.

However, the biggest story of these polls came from capital Delhi where a political novice made a stunning election debut. Anti-corruption crusader and former tax inspector Arvind Kejriwal led his Aam Admi Party or AAP to an impressive tally of 28 seats in a house of 70. His party, formed a year ago, relegated Congress to the third slot by cannibalising anti-incumbency votes that should have gone to the main opposition BJP, denying it a chance to return to power after a 15-year hiatus. More humiliating for Congress was the defeat of the three-term chief minister and veteran Sheila Dixit who lost her seat to 45-year-old Kejriwal in an intense contest. Dixit lost with a margin of 14,000 votes in a constituency she considered her fiefdom.

Humbled by the defeat, a visibly shaken chief of Congress Sonia Gandhi appeared before the media, assuring deep introspection. Her son, Rahul also agreed Congress was out of touch with ground realities, adding it would learn from Kejriwal’s impressive strategy to galvanise public opinion, a rare admission of his party’s ignominious failure.

Kejriwal’s victory is a culmination of years of accumulated public anger against Congress-led United Progressive Alliance federal government. While the rise of a political novice in Delhi does reflect public disgust for the political class in general, it would be a challenge for AAP to become a credible alternative in other states. In Delhi, where voters gave a hung verdict, government formation has hit a deadlock — AAP and BJP both refusing to take the bait, citing the lack of majority. The Congress has offered AAP unconditional support of the party’s eight legislators but Kejriwal is reluctant to form the government. The voters who rallied around Kejriwal are clearly disappointed.

Modi’s roadmap

Modi’s party, meanwhile will seek to build on the momentum it got during the state polls. For the coming weeks, he has a clear roadmap — on December 22 he will launch a campaign in key battleground state of Uttar Pradesh that has 80 seats in parliament. Four days later, he will address a big rally in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital. As things stand now, the BJP is better placed to emerge as the single largest party in parliamentary elections.

In view of all this, it is tempting to predict Congress’ demise in 2014 elections. The party is in a bad shape, lacks a credible face to fight Modi, Kejriwal and other regional heavy weights. The party’s frontline leader Rahul Gandhi’s only qualification is a fancy name, lacks experience in governance, oratory skills and political acumen. Moreover, the party is fighting the perception that ten years of UPA rule was a disaster on many fronts — poor state of economy, high inflation and corruption scams of gigantic proportions.

Despite all this, at this juncture, it is hard to write Congress off. If developments in the last ten days are any indication, the Congress seemed to be making the right choices in a clear attempt to get support from the middle class. At a time when the country’s liberal class erupted in anger against a court ruling on homosexuality, Sonia and Rahul publicly came out in support of gay sex. Both hinted their UPA government may issue an ordinance to nullify Article 377 of the penal code that criminalises sexual relations between two consenting adults of the same gender.

Secondly, the Congress has promised to pass an anti-corruption bill, paving way for an all-powerful ombudsman. Setting up of this office with far-reaching powers is a long pending demand of civil society activists, including Kejriwal who built his campaign on the political class’ reluctance to fight corruption. If the bill is passed in parliament next week, Congress would like to take credit for it.

Thirdly, if Kejriwal, with his Mr Clean image, forms the government in Delhi with Congress’ support, by association, Sonia’s party would like to capitalise on the goodwill AAP has built among the middle class.

Moreover, the parliamentary elections are held on a wider canvas and the outcome depends on how a cocktail of complex dynamics of regional parties, emotive issues and public perceptions play out when voting takes place early next year. At the moment, the BJP, with Modi at the helm, has a clear edge and is likely to be a winner. Will Modi become the prime minister is a question best answered closer to the polls.

Bobby Naqvi is the editor of XPRESS, a sister publication of Gulf News.