Israel-Hamas confrontation is establishing a new paradigm

The current stand-off between Hamas and Israel is a model that foreshadows a future of confrontation between Israel and a variety of organisations or groups now emergent in the Middle East. A regional order is being created in which Israel will be in conflict with a growing number of groups whose identities cannot be so conventionally circumscribed. Most of these are organisations that Israel would categorise as terrorists. Israel has been able so far to shield itself with an apparently invincible army. Now, the Hamas missiles, while admittedly not producing the same level of carnage that Israeli air raids inflict on Gaza, are in fact causing far more real and potential damage than Israel can afford.

If the current deadlock is prolonged further, two particular consequences arise: it advertises the vulnerability of Israel, and second, this situation encourages and literally invites more factions into the region deploying similar techniques in their chosen arena of conflict. An obvious connection here is with the situation in Syria. To date, Israel has benefited from a weakened Syrian regime, and especially from the nullification of its chemical weapons, but the substantial amount of unregulated military hardware on the ground may be far more disturbing for Israel than the Syrian army ever were. Thus, the already well-established militant groups in Syria could, at any time, re-direct their attention towards the common enemy that is Israel.

The occurrence of missiles being fired into Israel will increasingly be perceived as an everyday event; as such action currently offers the only effective method of protest in response to Israel’s historical and ongoing treatment of the Palestinian people. There will perhaps be a time when Israel might agree to a cease fire not entirely on its terms, as it cannot afford to be engaged in a long-term escalation of hostilities. As that could destabilise the very notion of safety that Israel has sustained through construction of containment walls, through the erection of road barricades in the West Bank, through the creation of check-points, and of course through regular air-strikes. Israel’s current action can only be ultimately harmful to its long-term security.