Progress card of promises

Robust diplomacy will be the key word in Obama's foreign policy instead of belligerence and the aggressive tone that were the hallmarks of his predecessor.

While Obama's endeavours to resuscitate America's ailing economy have encountered the usual party political posturing — with the Republicans extending little support — he has taken some swift and decisive steps on foreign policy during his first 30 days in office.

Obama's first decisive action was to “reach out'' to the Muslim world, which found itself increasingly estranged as president George W. Bush's “war on terror'' was interpreted to mean a “war against Islam''.

The invasion of Iraq widened the rift between the United States and the Muslim world.

America's old friends in the Muslim world began to view the Bush administration as not just unfriendly but outright belligerent.

Obama, who had promised to correct this perception, took several steps to prevent the alienation of the Muslim world.

His first major foreign policy decision was to order the closure of the Guantanamo Bay detention centre.

Obama's aides are also negotiating with a number of countries, mainly in Europe, to find a home for the Guantanamo detainees who cannot or will not return to their countries of origin.

Another strong signal of Obama's desire to reconcile with the Muslim world was his choice of Al Arabiya for his first interview to the foreign media.

Instead of using Bush-era terms — he avoided the “war on terror'' term — Obama referred to Al Qaida and the Taliban as extremists who “use faith as a justification for violence''.

Obama made it clear that Al Qaida and the Taliban represented a minority in the Arab and Muslim world, indicating his belief that a carefully crafted diplomatic initiative could align US interests with those of the Middle East and Central Asia.

Although a month in office is too short a period to draw a clearer foreign policy picture, Obama will become increasingly involved in foreign affairs, too, despite his assertion that he would encourage a healthy debate and diversity of views.

While reviving the ailing economy will be his prime focus for now, Obama's foreign policy will acquire clearer contours by the time he completes 100 days in office.

The Obama administration has recognised Iraq as its most pressing issue.

The president has already appointed George Mitchell and Richard C. Holbrooke as emissaries for the Palestine/Israel conflict and the Afghanistan/Pakistan region respectively and is expected to name Vice-President Joe Biden to handle Iraq.

While Obama remains committed to a US troop withdrawal from Iraq in less than a year-and-a-half, his immediate strategic objective will be to strengthen the Iraqi government to ensure stability.

Biden, himself an expert on foreign affairs, will coordinate closely with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki to resolve controversial issues such as distribution of oil revenues and the administration of Kirkuk.

It remains to be seen whether Obama will support the partitioning of Iraq into three semi-independent states — for the Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis.

However, it is the “Afpak'' region — Afghanistan and Pakistan — that will consume Obama's energies on foreign policy.

Intelligence reports suggest Al Qaida and the Taliban are regrouping and strengthening their alliance in the frontier province, particularly the area between Kabul and Peshawar.

There is also the problem Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai. Faced with criticism from Washington over the proliferation of militancy in the country, Karzai dropped hints of turning to “old friend'' Russia whose response has, so far, been cool.

Karzai's government, perceived as corrupt and nepotistic, has failed to crack down on Afghan warlords who have been strengthening their positions with the financially rewarding opium trade.

But nuclear-armed Pakistan, according to a US military study in preparation, is the most urgent foreign policy challenge facing the president.

The study by the US Central Command, which has been analysing the situation in the Middle East and South Asia, will recommend changes in the US strategy for the region, including hiking US development aid to Pakistan to improve public education, healthcare, good governance, poverty alleviation and removal of illiteracy.

The Obama administration could counter public resentment against the US by increasing development aid and silencing its growing number of Pakistani critics who argue that the US military action on Pakistani soil was strengthening the insurgency.

Though not yet officially proposed, Biden has favoured a plan to provide a total development and non-military aid package of $15 billion (Dh55 billion) for Pakistan for a ten-year period.

The US has already given military aid worth over $7 billion and some $3 billion in non-military assistance to Pakistan since 9/11.

Holbrooke, who has just completed a tour of Afghanistan and Pakistan, is aware that the Pakistani Taliban controls a vast region near the Afghanistan border and the Swat valley, which is about 160 kilometres from Islamabad.

Pakistan, as Holbrooke has said and officials privately acknowledge, will be a “very hot potato''.

Peace in the Mideast is not possible without a new relationship with Iran.

Also, Washington would like Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions and use its connections to maintain stability in Iraq and Afghanistan and prevent future Hamas-type attacks on Israel.

Although Obama has already extended an olive branch to Iran, its President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is sending mixed signals, blending his willingness to talk with criticism.

This is making Washington's task difficult as it tries to figure out how to start a formal dialogue with Iran.

Washington will also attempt to repair relations with Russia and China. While the former's belligerence evoked concern in US political circles after its armed conflict with Georgia, Washington wants to achieve a friendly relationship with Russia which will “clear the air'' and curb its belligerent instincts, as US diplomats put it.

The problems with China are, primarily, of an economic nature. Besides reducing the huge trade deficit with China, Washington wants to nudge it to reduce pollution.

Hillary Clinton is visiting China in the course of her four-nation Asian tour, which includes Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.

Human rights violations will also figure in Hillary's talks with Chinese leaders.

Manik Mehta is a commentator on Asian affairs.