Articles from the author

Oil market not driven by supply or demand

I was recently invited to a lunch where a number of people related to the oil industry were present. It was strictly a social gathering but as oilmen are they have to talk shop.

In 1977, I visited a major Asian city, which was congested and you can smell the gasoline and diesel fuel and the fumes of combustion in every street.

General Jarosiliski who ruled Poland in the 1980s always wore black glasses, very much similar to those worn by welders. On a visit to Poland in 1983 I asked my Polish friend jokingly, when will the General take off his glasses so that we can see his eyes and my friend said "not before he completely welds Poland to the Soviet Union".

It is in every oilman's mind now that one of the basic reasons of the current oil price environment is the world refining capacity and quality or the lack of it.

Fifty years ago this month, Daura refinery in Baghdad started operations with a capacity of 25,000 barrels per day, not small by the standards those days. The facility was the first government-owned refinery in Iraq.

The majority of people, especially in the West, think nothing of Opec ministers meetings except that they are for fixing production and raising prices.

In Arabic we say "the beginning of a torrent is few drops" and in energy substitution things may be slow to evolve but they do produce substantial results later.

I remember 20 months ago how the US invasion was going to drive the price of oil to the low teens or even to single digits. I also remember how Iraqi production was going to pick up and how Iraq would be nominated to replace Saudi Arabia and, ultimately, Opec would be no more.

Prejudice is plenty even in the oil industry despite its long international history and outlook.

From the Pipeline: Protecting the environment

From the Pipeline: Taxing petroleum products is good business - but for whom?