One should have expected it, given the experience of the past 15 years of violence, and yet the unsettling events of the past fortnight came as a surprise. The peace process has not, at least yet, been derailed but all kinds of impediments are turning up on the tracks. Nor is it the usual suspects the cynical warmongers among the bureaucrats and generals in Islamabad and New Delhi. Those trying to trip up peace are the men with the guns, on both sides of the battle, right here in Kashmir.

Their pernicious influence focused first on Hurriyat leader Fazl-ul Haq Qureshi, one of the most sincere, God-fearing men one could find anywhere. Being the sort of man he is, Qureshi has never accepted any kind of security at his residence. A simple single-story structure of bare bricks, it stands on a generally lonely street in a northern suburb of the city, the high wall of a school compound stretching the length of the street on the other side. Nor have I ever found the door locked when I have dropped in unannounced to meet him although that is always a long shot. He is generally away, at the mosque or visiting a bereaved family or doing what he can to help someone in need.

It must have been easy therefore for the two young men who walked into his house brandishing pistols a fortnight ago. Since Qureshi was not at home, they threatened his children, holding a pistol to the head of one while they announced that they would all be killed if he did not withdraw from the peace talks. Qureshi was forced to announce his withdrawal from the Hurriyat team that had begun negotiations last month with Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani.

Jihad

Clearly, some at least of the various militants in the Valley do not want the peace process to go forward. There are two possible reasons. The first is that the powers that be in Pakistan do not want a Kashmiri group particularly the faction of the Hurriyat that it does not favour to come to an agreement with the Government of India without Pakistan at the table. The second is that some of the militant commanders are unwilling to give up the jihad against India at the behest of the Pakistan government, which many of them think have sold out the Kashmiri cause. The militants could defy instructions from the ISI brass for at least a while, although the ISI has a whip hand, not least because of the communication network and supply lines that it coordinates.

On the other hand, evidence turned up over the past fortnight that elements in the Indian forces too are chary to let go of this war. The sorts of human rights abuses that have come to light indicate that some at least of the Army's field commanders have chosen to ride roughshod over local sentiments at a time when they must surely know how vital it is for the peace process that they restrain themselves. Their behaviour is particularly remarkable in light of the fact that they have been kept under tight rein over the past couple of years.

The Hurriyat Conference was already under pressure over these human rights abuses when Qureshi withdrew from the talks. Just the day before Qureshi's announcement, several speakers at a meeting of the Hurriyat's General Council, on which all the 26 member groups are represented, had pressed strongly for the Hurriyat to abandon the talks. The fact that Hurriyat Chairman Abbas Ansari delayed for more than a week and then announced only that the team would not attend the meeting scheduled for mid-March indicates how eager the Hurriyat's senior leaders are to move forward. His announcement was virtually forced by the continuance of custody deaths during that week.

Tremendous clout

Some members of the General Council told me after that meeting that they were convinced that the Indian "agencies" wanted to scuttle the peace process in order to protect the vast powers and funding that they have under the special laws in force in Kashmir. They believe that the Army too is chary of giving up the tremendous clout it has in the disturbed situation. If indeed the men with guns on both sides of this terrible violence do not want it to end, the governments of India and Pakistan as well as the Kashmiri groups that are trying to negotiate peace will have to be extremely cautious as they try to move forward over the next few months.

By David Devadasan

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Letter from Kashmir: Peace focuses on the men with guns