The dangers of the superpower proxy war in Syria getting out of control dramatically escalated last week when an American F18 “Super Hornet” fighter aircraft shot down a Syrian SU-22, a Russian-made fighter-bomber. Russia remains a close ally of President Bashar Al Assad’s regime in Syria and after the shooting, Moscow issued a stern warning to the United States that “any aircraft, including planes and drones belonging to the international coalition, operating west of the River Euphrates, will be treated as targets”. To emphasise this Russian red line, later in the week, Russia fired cruise missiles from two frigates and a submarine in the Mediterranean Sea to attack what it claimed were Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) command centres and ammunition depots in Hama province. Previous Russian attacks on Daesh included a similar missile assault aimed at sites near Palmyra in May, although most of Russia’s interventions in the Syrian civil war have been on the regime side against the opposition, and it is relatively rare for Russia to attack Daesh.

The dangerous escalation is in part due to the lack of political control over the US military, whom US President Donald Trump has given wide latitude of action. When he came into power, he largely ceded any American lead in Syria to Russia, but his cosy relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin was very soon under strain. This combined with Trump’s impulsiveness that led him to respond to Al Assad’s April 4 poison gas attack on the Syrian town of Khan Shaykhun, with an unexpected 59 cruise missile strikes on a Syrian airbase, was a very clear message to Syria and its Russian allies not to use chemical weapons.

Russia seemed to accept the stricture at the time, but this time has been much tougher in its response. The Russians like to regard Syria as their sphere of influence, and have been encouraged to do so by former US president Barack Obama and Trump’s disinterest in the conflict. But the US has been slowly increasing its support for the opposition forces and is now taking an active role in supporting the opposition groups that will recapture Raqqa in the near future. As the variety of Syrian groups regain control of the country from the alien Daesh forces and fight it out in the west of the country, they all need to remember that they will jointly have to forge a new country, and the Russians and Americans are not a long-term part of Syria.