How costly could the first round of the NBA Playoffs prove for LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers?
In the final game of their 4-0 sweep of the Boston Celtics, the Cavs lost two starters for their second-round match-up against the Bulls (probably), or the Bucks (possibly).
Power forward Kevin Love will be out for the entire second round after a hairy Canadian did this:
The dislocated shoulder will keep Love out of the entire second round.
Then, to literally add insult to injury, shooting guard JR Smith did this:
Smith was suspended for two games by the NBA.
While neither player was at their best against the Celtics – Love’s point production slipped from his regular season average of 16.4 to 14.3 and Smith’s from 12.1 to 9.8 – they are the Cavs’ two best spot-up shooters, essential floor-spreaders in the team’s pick-and-roll-heavy offence led by James and point guard Kyrie Irving.
So how do the Cavs replace them?
Iman Shumpert will get the nod at shooting guard for games one and two. No huge drama here – the Cavs will miss Smith’s shooting and swagger but Shumpert is a capable defender who can provide some offence here and there. It is the butterfly effect caused by Love’s absence that has the doubters circling.
So who replaces him? The obvious answer is to put James at power forward.
James does not like to play too many minutes guarding bruisers in the post. But even if Cavs coach David Blatt elects to start the game with key reserve Tristan Thompson, the 6ft 8in James will surely be forced to spend more time defending the other team’s four-man.
There is no doubt he would be effective at big forward – in fact, if he played there exclusively, he would be the best at the position in the league.
But up to seven games rubbing shoulders with Chicago’s bruising trio of Joaquim Noah, Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson will take a toll that could carry into further rounds.
And with James at power forward, who plays small forward? James Jones? He was two-of-11 on three-pointers in round one. Mike Miller? He was four-for-four – on DNPs.
Blatt could dust off Shawn Marion for some minutes at either forward spot. At least ‘The Matrix’ got off the bench in round one - he played a single minute against the Celtics.
Either way, one of the three will need to step up and contribute some real minutes. All three are NBA champions – Jones and Miller with James during Miami's 2012-13 title repeat and Marion with Dallas the season before – and veterans who have made careers out of proving doubters wrong. But they have an average age of 35 and found themselves out of the rotation for a reason.
These changes could all hit the Cavs’ chemistry – a delicate thing. Cleveland finished the season by winning 34 of their final 43 games after striking line-up gold with the additions of Smith, Shumpert and centre Timofey Mozgov. But before that, they won 19 of 39. Take Love and Smith out and which of these two teams turns up?
Any one of these issues could be the flat tyre on Cleveland’s road to the NBA Finals.
Or could it be just the boost the Cavs need?
Don’t forget, it was an injury to Chris Bosh in the 2012 playoffs that first saw James moved to power forward for extended time. As it turned out, a man with Kobe Bryant's ability in Karl Malone's frame was just as hard to stop when he was closer to the basket.
It worked so well that Bosh made his return to the line-up at the centre position and, just like that, one of the greatest small-ball units in NBA history was born. The Heat spent the next two seasons with Bosh and James as the bigs and won two NBA titles in the process.
That is not to say that lightning will strike twice. But back in 2012, everyone was ready to write off the Heat after Bosh’s injury until greatness found a way.
James is still great, even if the supporting cast is different. Mozgov is no Bosh, and, as good as Irving has been, he doesn't have Dwyane Wade's playoff experience.
The Kevin Love injury is a real issue for the Cavs, there is no doubt about that. But do you think the Bulls (or Bucks) are celebrating the fact that James will be closer to the basket in round two?
Yes, James doesn't like playing power forward, but that doesn't mean he won't do it extremely well. Whichever player you lose, if you still have LeBron, you are still ahead. History has taught us that.
Update: Love is 'highly unlikely' to play again in the 2015 playoffs, according to Cleveland Cavaliers GM David Griffin.
