Nicolas Maduro, the hand-picked successor to the late Hugo Chavez, has won the narrowest of victories in Venezuela’s presidential election.
Maduro secured 50.7 per cent of the vote against 49.1 per cent for opposition leader, Henrique Capriles.
As is his right, especially with such a narrow margin, Capriles has demanded a recount. According to reports, while the National Electoral Council has said the results are “irreversible”, Maduro has indicated he would allow an audit of the poll.
Given the sharp political divisions in the country the results should be audited and the outcome of the poll put beyond reasonable doubt. However, the opposition must accept any legitimate outcome — no matter how narrow — and continue to work within the political system, rather than simply try to destabilise the country.
Venezuela cannot afford continued political and social instability or policy uncertainty. The country is suffering from high inflation, soaring crime, food shortages and electricity blackouts, despite having vast oil reserves. Venezuela has long been an unequal society, but Chavez increased its economic difficulties with the ham-handed implementation of policies that had the laudable aim of improving living standards and opportunities for the poor.
High oil prices made expensive, popular social programmes affordable at first, but clashes with foreign investors over income and ownership of the country’s reserves reduced revenue and Venezuela’s ability to attract necessary investment. Chavez’s policies cannot continue without radical reforms.
Maduro now has the challenge of trying to reform the country’s economy and social programmes, without a strong political mandate. He will be as vulnerable to pressure from his party, as he will be to that from the opposition. But, he cannot afford to vacillate. Policy stability — more than the terms of investment — will be necessary to attract foreign capital back to the country. Maduro will have to quickly build his own support base, independent of the one bequeathed him by Chavez, to be able to reform the country’s increasingly unaffordable social programmes. Despite Maduro’s victory, change is inevitably coming to Venezuela.
