Tension is very high in Ukraine as a convoy of more than 280 Russian military lorries left Moscow heading for the Russian-backed separatist controlled enclave around Donetsk. The Russians have assured the Ukrainians and the European Union that the convoy is carrying only humanitarian aid for the besieged residents but the lack of any formal coordination with aid agencies or international bodies has led Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Secretary-General of Nato, to say that there was a “high probability” of a new Russian attack on Ukrainian forces that might happen “under the guise of a humanitarian operation”. At its best, the exercise is a TV stunt to try to improve the Russian’s image, which is a minor problem for the Ukrainians. But at worst, it is a ‘Trojan horse’ infiltration of weapons to rearm the militias rapidly running low on fuel and ammunition.
Suspicions have been heightened by the manner in which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed a deal had been agreed with the Ukrainian side over the entry of the convoy into the separatist territory. But Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko had only agreed to the idea of a humanitarian mission if it followed international standards. The secrecy over the present convoy has raised serious doubts about what the Russians are trying to transport to their client militias. Poroshenko has said the convoy’s Russian escort and support staff would not be allowed across the border, and the Russian lorries would be unloaded and the aid would be transported in Ukrainian lorries. But separatists control about 60 miles (96km) of the border with Russia, meaning the convoy could enter Ukraine by night without verification by Kiev or the international community.
Ukraine is right to be very suspicious because this massive convoy is being arranged just as its troops are advancing close to Donetsk and Luhansk. And after months of chaos, the Ukrainians are starting to hope that they will recapture all their territory in the near future. Such a Ukrainian advance would be a severe blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to keep the country unstable for the foreseeable future.
