There is a serious danger that inadequate preparation will lead to a failure in tomorrow’s talks in Moscow between Iran and leaders of the international community. This will be a pity since the world needs to resolve this long-running issue at the earliest.
The latest round of talks with the P5+1 (US, Britain, France, Russia, China plus Germany) follows meetings in Istanbul and Baghdad. Both previous rounds of talks failed because the P5+1 insisted on trying to work through the details of Iran’s nuclear programme, while Iran wanted more wide-ranging negotiations.
The problem is set to raise its ugly head in Moscow as well. The P5+1 is still trying to push its narrow agenda. Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has told Iran that it must accept detailed discussions on freezing its uranium enrichment at 20 per cent, in return for international supplies of enriched uranium and civilian plane parts.
But Iran wants this round of talks to include its five-point plan, which covers both the nuclear programme and non-nuclear matters like regional issues. “[EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton] agreed that Iran’s five-point proposal is on the agenda for the Moscow discussions, even non-nuclear issues,” said Saeed Jalili, Iran’s nuclear negotiator.
There is a strong suspicion that neither Iran nor the US wants an agreement, since neither Mahmoud Ahmadinejad nor Barack Obama will win any extra votes by making friends with the enemy. Ahmadinejad’s successor will face Iranian presidential elections early in 2013, while Obama faces polls in November.
Ashton has been tasked with heading the talks for the P5+1, but with neither the Iranian nor American leadership wanting to strike a deal, she is not likely to get anywhere.
In fact, it will be a major success if she manages to prevent a multiple walkout in Moscow. In the long term, it serves both sides to keep the diplomatic channels open and have an outline of a deal on the table.
