The bizarre accusation against the Iranians of seeking to use Mexican drug mafia hitmen to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington does not require a military response. If the extraordinary tale turns out to be true, it would be a terrible act by the Iranians, which might well require all sorts of sanctions or recompense, but it is not a reason to go to war.
Iran has asked the Saudis "not to fall into the trap" of believing the accusations, in a statement yesterday by Ali Ahani, Iran's deputy foreign minister in charge of European and American affairs. The problem is whether Iran is guilty or not, he would have to say something along those lines. So the statement is probably not worth very much.
The FBI will have to make a very good case, which should not rely on supposition or any vagueness. The FBI will need to prove absolutely that the Iranian government was behind the alleged assassination plot, and to date the US Justice Department has spoken of actions by "elements" of Iranian forces, which may or may not have had senior approval. This is not strong enough to start a diplomatic or military row.
The FBI will need to prove without any doubt that the alleged plot had approval from senior government officials. The world does not need another ‘dodgy dossier' or another dubious statement of the kind that Colin Powell made to the UN over non-existent Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
There is already deep distrust between the Saudis and the Iranians, and this will be greatly exacerbated by this accusation. It is understandable that the Saudis have been quick to attack Iran over the issue, but senior government approval still needs to be proved absolutely conclusively. The two major powers of the Gulf cannot let their relations be shaped by accusations in Washington which do not yet point to the Iranian government itself.
