There is a dangerous escalation in the increasingly violent street battles in east Ukraine between pro-Russian militias and the authorities who are struggling to keep control of the situation. The pro-Russian side is working under an organised campaign that is clearly backed by Moscow to seek confrontation with the interim government’s security forces. The situation is getting closer and closer to the pantomime in Crimea that triggered the Russian annexation.
In order to stand up to Russian pressure, and potential annexation of half the country, the Ukrainian government needs help. The European Union has to be much more forceful in spelling out exactly how it can provide financial support, probably in conjunction with the IMF. It also needs to be clear how it can find new energy sources (for itself) and for Ukraine. There is ample gas in the world to fuel Ukraine but the pipelines are not in the right places to stop it relying on Russia.
As the superpower, the United States also needs to be much clearer that it will not tolerate any further Russian expansion, although that will be tough following its mild response to Russia’s grabbing of Crimea, and creation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgian territory.
Samantha Power, US ambassador to the UN, made a good start when she said that the gun battles between Ukrainian troops and Russian protesters are professional and coordinated, and certainly not a grassroots movement. She has said that the US would look at tougher economic sanctions on Russia, including sectorial sanctions against energy, banking and mining.
But more support on the ground would also help. It is clear that the Ukrainian government is weak. It is unable to muster the support it needs and its allies and friends need to move to support it. Governments that want to help the Ukrainians should not be frightened of Moscow’s pressure. The fact that hundreds of Russians are pouring into Ukraine is ample reason to call Putin’s bluff, and remind him that a sovereign border is exactly what it means.
