In a bizarre move, the United States made its armed forces hostage to the uncertain future of Afghanistan when President Barack Obama signed a ten-year deal last week to continue an American military presence in Afghanistan after the end of its present Nato mandate all the way until 2024.
It is hard to predict what Afghanistan will be like in 2024, but it is certain that American troops will not be needed to make that future happen. They have not succeeded in their aims over the past 10 years, and there is no reason to believe their cut-down role for the next 10 years will make any difference.
Obama is assuming that military force will be needed to support the Afghan government in its aims and he is ignoring the political reality that the Afghan government is failing to attract the essential support from the Afghan people.
However, the delusions of American policy in Afghanistan are dwarfed by American errors in Afghanistan's much larger and more important neighbour to the south: Pakistan. If the United States cannot get it right in Pakistan, it will never solve Afghanistan's problems. Obama said that Pakistan should be an equal partner in sorting out their problems, but the mutual distrust between Pakistan and the United States is steadily growing.
A recent report from the Pentagon said the "Taliban-led insurgency and its Al Qaida affiliates still operate with impunity from sanctuaries in Pakistan," which Pakistan denies. Islamabad has demanded the United States stop its drone attacks on targets within its borders, but the United States regards these attacks as essential. Just yesterday, a drone strike killed nine people in North Waziristan. Pakistan is refusing to open supply lines through the country for US troops in Afghanistan.
None of this adds up to a healthy relationship, and only emphasises that the US would be better off withdrawing its troops, and pulling out of the region.
