With China intensifying its political and economic influence in Asia, with the tacit support of some nations and with passive resistance from others, US President Barack Obama’s official visit to key Asian countries, which starts on Wednesday, will determine the index of his country’s influence in the region.
More than Washington it will be Asean countries that will be measuring the president’s words and assurances that the US will not renege on its commitment for support: politically, economically and militarily.
Key Asian markets, namely Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, form the nucleus of the world’s current economic hot spots — 12 countries account for 40 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product — and Beijing has reinforced that in its quest to spread the dragnet and attain decisive control.
China has followed a blow-hot, blow-cold policy to meet its objectives: cajoling states to become partners in an aggressive trade related programme and also adopting a belligerent strategy of indulging in territorial disputes for logistical advantage and to harvest the natural resources available in key areas.
Obama has been sucked into crossing swords with Beijing often in a bid to ensure that the balance of power in the region is not altered. The Chinese are not daunted.
Which brings us to the more important factor of the US president’s visit — he will be hard put to assure his allies that Washington’s bite is as bad as its bark when push comes to shove. Obama will have to walk the talk and not just deliver empty promises.
There are simmering bilateral tensions between China, a newly aggressive Japan and an insecure South Korea. Each problem has its own dynamics and historical roots. Obama will have to placate the stakeholders and come up with a blueprint that works. With Malaysia and the Philippines, it is a matter of strengthening alliances.
More importantly, Obama will have to plant the seeds of an accord that will stand the test of time after his term in office is over.
