It is a matter of concern that Lebanon is so close to next week’s parliamentary vote for the first round of presidential elections and only one candidate has put his name forward to win the necessary two thirds of the votes to become president. The only candidate to have openly declared interest in running for office is Samir Geagea, tainted by his record when he was a Christian warlord during the civil war and who leads a right-wing and fiercely anti-Hezbollah political party.
But a much more likely candidate to win is former army commander Michel Aoun who may currently have the unstated backing of Saad Hariri who will hope to become prime minister if Aoun is elected president. Such a consensus ticket reeks of a stitch-up between Lebanon’s perpetually feuding politicians. But it has the benefit of offering the country some element of stability as it faces the challenge of coping with one million refugees from Syria’s civil war and with many more expected as the fighting across the border will continue for the foreseeable future.
The parliament’s speaker has said that voting will start next Wednesday, in what may be the first round in a fiercely contested vote expected to continue for some time as new candidates make themselves known. The benefit of the possible Aoun-Hariri deal is that it will reduce Hezbollah’s potential to spoil the show — which in the past has had enough numbers to wreck a deal, but not enough to form a government.
The urgency is that current President Michel Sulaiman’s six-year term expires on May 25, making it important to find a successor rather than allowing the country to operate in a political vacuum as has happened far too often in the past. Lebanon needs a quick solution to this political uncertainty. The country and new government will have to deal with its own massive security and economic challenges, which have been exaggerated by the spillover from the civil war raging in neighbouring Syria.
