In the face of increased Israeli military activity, Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri has warned Israel that the Lebanese government and Hezbollah will not be divided in the event of any military action. This has infuriated Israel, and has had the effect of raising tension all over the region, with Syria adding that it will not stand idle in the event of trouble.
Famously, Hezbollah is the only non-state player that refused to hand in its arms at the end of the Lebanese civil war, and it remains the military power in south Lebanon, instead of the Lebanese Army. Hezbollah has the political prestige of having forced the Israelis to unilaterally withdraw from south Lebanon in 2000, although later Hezbollah's cross-border raid that killed five Israeli soldiers triggered the 2006 invasion of south Lebanon.
Israel probably thought that this history of Hezbollah's disregard for the Lebanese state would lead Hariri to distance himself from the movement. But things have moved on in the past few years, and Hezbollah is now an essential part of Hariri's government. Repeated elections have made it clear that Hezbollah is a Lebanese political force that cannot be ignored, by the Lebanese and others.
Hariri is clearly well aware of the danger of the Israelis taking advantage of Lebanon's much fractured political make-up. "They are betting on division in Lebanon, if there is a war against us," Hariri said in an uncompromising statement. "There will be no division in Lebanon. We will stand against Israel. We will stand with our own people."
All this rhetoric does not exist in a vacuum, and clearly Hariri and others feel that the tension has been deliberately raised. He added, "This is something that is escalating, and this is something that is really dangerous."
It is important that calm heads make it clear that any military action would be a disaster and should be avoided.
