Lebanon is likely to be the next target for the terrorists of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) as it seeks to take advantage of its success in Syria and Iraq to spread its message across the region. The black flags of these dangerous extremists have already flown in Tripoli and other cities, as the very few Isil sympathisers seek to build their position, and the Lebanese have been unable to respond effectively as their government is still in chaos. There is a real danger that the Shiite radicals in Hezbollah will respond, turning the conflict into a major sectarian clash, so it is important that any Isil actions are dealt with by the Lebanese Army, the properly constituted force to deal with foreign invasion. Fragile and semi-failed states such as Lebanon and Yemen offer an easy opportunity to the fierce international fighters of Isil. US President Barack Obama may be about to rain down a hail of drones and missiles on Isil sites in Syria and Iraq, and while some fighters may probably stay to resist the American led-coalition, others will slip away to continue their mission elsewhere.
Unlike conventional governments or local militias, Isil does not need to succeed in offering good governance or balancing its budget. Its mission is to create instability and chaos from which it takes immediate advantage and thoroughly unsettles its neighbours, giving itself a much greater reach than a conventional political force would have. Lebanon is an easy target, but its neighbour to the south is a much more satisfactory target for Isil who would acquire substantial political credibility by attacking Israel.
