Iran has long characterised its domestic struggle as being between the revolutionaries of 1979 and those who opposed the revolution, the “agents of the West”. But what the nation has proved time and again is that its internal struggle is now between the revolutionaries themselves. This started in 2009, when the country was shocked by the way revered revolutionary figures, who had chosen to side with the reformist Green Movement, were treated. And this has been done again with the barring of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the architects of the revolution, from running for the presidential elections next month. This sets a dangerous precedent for the regime, revealing its tactic of discrediting its adversaries by questioning their revolutionary credentials. Iran’s intra-revolutionary conflict has dragged the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, into petty squabbling over power, which will be detrimental to the regime’s well-being.
Through such shortsighted measures, Iran has robbed its own people of hope — however futile, considering that most of the powers lie in the hands of the Supreme Leader — that change is in the horizon. It has given millions of Iranians born after the revolution yet another reason to take to the streets in protest. Many of those who protested, following the disputed 2009 elections, can relate to the Arab Spring and some even believe it was inspired by their own movement. Since then, four regional regimes have fallen and another is on its way. There is no reason to believe that the ‘Arab Street’ has not inspired the ‘Iranian Street’ in its turn.
Iran has also disappointed its neighbours to the south, many of whom had been holding their breath for a peaceful and democratic power transfer that would see an improvement in the Islamic Republic’s relations with the Arab states. Rafsanjani, who has enjoyed good relations with the Gulf states, had relatively moderate views on regional conflicts and particularly the civil war in Syria. His arrival could have led to reconciliation between Iran and its Arab neighbours and possibly to a way out of the sectarian abyss the region is heading towards. The move is therefore going to be interpreted in Gulf capitals as a continuation of Tehran’s arrogant confrontational approach towards the Arab states.
