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Zuma will have his task cut out

Let me emphasise the current political changes taking place in the country are nothing extraordinary," said Jacob Zuma, the man poised to become the president of South Africa next year, after the sudden resignation of his nemesis Thabo Mbeki on Saturday.

  • By Omar Shariff, Sub Editor
  • Published: 23:32 September 26, 2008
  • Gulf News

Let me emphasise the current political changes taking place in the country are nothing extraordinary," said Jacob Zuma, the man poised to become the president of South Africa next year, after the sudden resignation of his nemesis Thabo Mbeki on Saturday. It is hard to believe he meant what he said.

Not since the end of apartheid has South Africa found itself in such a political mess. The once invincible, united African National Congress (ANC) was split right in the centre between Mbeki supporters and Zuma loyalists. Helen Zille, leader of the only real opposition party in the country, the Democratic Alliance, has gone to the extent of predicting that this crisis will end ANC's electoral dominance (an unlikely proposition).

Noted political analyst, Moeletsi Mbeki, the outgoing president's brother, has said the ANC was headed down a dangerous path that could end in civil war. He accused the party of destabilising South Africa.

The ANC's annual conference last year in Polokwane sealed Mbeki's fate. He knew his days were numbered when the 4,000 delegates elected Zuma as the party leader. Change is what they wanted.

Having taken over as president from Nelson Mandela in 1999, Mbeki had more than enough time to bring about real change. His undoing was his stubbornness in the face of informed advice.

His most serious lapse in judgement came on the issue of Aids, a disease that is killing one South African every 100 seconds and is eating away at the social fabric of the country. Mbeki chose to ally himself with pseudo-scientists who saw no link between HIV and Aids, inviting international derision. He delayed the supply of anti-retroviral drugs, with predictably catastrophic consequences for thousands.

Good for business

But Mbeki was seen as being good for business. Under his stewardship, the country saw moderate but consistent economic growth.

Zuma, on the other hand, is regarded with some wariness by business leaders. He is seen as being too close to the powerful Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party.

However, Zuma has genuine support among the people. He has a way of communicating and connecting with the masses (He regales the crowds with his anthem "Bring me my machine gun" given half a chance).

For the moment, Kgalema Motlanthe has taken over Mbeki's job. A left-leaning intellectual who spent 10 years in the notorious Robben Island prison, he is seen as a "safe pair of hands".

Mduduzi S. Khumalo, Research Specialist at the Peace & Security Research Unit of the Pretoria-based Africa Institute of South Africa, denied claims to Gulf News that Motlanthe is close to Zuma. "It is a misconception. He [Motlanthe] is neutral. And for the next few months, his task will be to ensure that the projects started during Mbeki's reign are completed.

Khumalo also rubbished opposition claims that the ANC risked break-up. "It is not in the culture of the party. It is too united for that."

'Peculiar' culture

He said Zuma would be a much better president than Mbeki. "Zuma unlike Mbeki, is not arrogant. Like Motlanthe, he was raised in the ANC's peculiar, if I may use the word, culture. It is a culture of people's values, of consensual decision-making and of ubuntu [concept of humanity]. Zuma is an ANC original."

He also said that Zuma is only as close to COSATU and the Communists as Mbeki was. "You must realise the ruling party alliance is made up of the ANC, the COSATU and the South African Communist Party. They are all in alliance. Zuma is close to them. He has to be [in order to govern]. Even Mbeki was."

Asked what should be Zuma's priorities should he indeed be elected president next year, Khumalo said: "He has his task cut out. Nation building must be on the top of his agenda.

"The other main issues are economic revival, integrating South Africa [more comprehensively] in the African continent, full involvement in conflict resolution not only in Zimbabwe but also in other parts of the continent, like the Horn of Africa region and internationally."

However, corruption charges continue to haunt Zuma. Despite the High Court judge throwing out the charges recently, and implying that Mbeki meddled in the case - one of the reasons the ANC moved so decisively against Mbeki - the National Prosecuting Authority has appealed. If the appeal succeeds or the case simply drags on, party big wigs may well consider backing Motlanthe for the presidency in next year's election.

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