Ever since Morgan Tsvangirai's victorious Movement for Democratic Change was forced into a power-sharing government with President Robert Mugabe's losing Zanu-PF party nearly two years ago, it has been widely assumed that, if truly free and fair elections were held again, the MDC would win hands down. But now that Mugabe has indicated that fresh polls could be held as early as next June, some MDC officials are no longer quite so confident of winning outright again. And even if they do, they wonder if they will ever be able to achieve real power. Few can imagine Mugabe, Zimbabwe's dictator for 30 years, ever quietly retiring to the country to tend to his cattle.

Besides, some in the MDC fear it is losing popularity as it fails to get its hand on the levers of power and improve people's lives. "We've done a lousy job in government," says a senior MDC man. "While Zanu-PF have used the last 21 months to refocus and reinvent themselves, we've lost our identity. Zanu-PF are as brutal and corrupt as before, but much richer. They've got an almost total grip on the Marange diamonds [in the east of the country] and still control the media and security forces. They're much better organised than we are. The polls may still show us in the lead, but almost half the electorate refuse to say how they will vote. There's likely to be massive apathy among MDC supporters. If we went to the polls now, I think we could lose. We've got to start fighting."

At a two-day retreat in Johannesburg in the middle of last month, the assembled MDC leadership reached the same conclusion. Despite repeated pledges by Mugabe to the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the 15-country regional club that is overseeing the supposed sharing of power in Zimbabwe, he has refused to implement most of the pact he signed with Tsvangirai in September 2008. Invasions of white-owned farms, human-rights violations and blatant disrespect for the rule of law persist. The MDC complains that the 86-year-old president, who despite his growing physical frailty is as cunningly manipulative as ever, has been blocking it at almost every turn. Frustrated by its impotence, the MDC says it is time to take the gloves off.

More assertive

But what does that mean? Its efforts to be more assertive have been repeatedly stymied. Tsvangirai is loth to pull out of the unity government. To do so would let Mugabe and his generals rule the country at will until at least 2013.

Tsvangirai's latest hope, once again, is to persuade SADC to intervene more forcefully. But few Zimbabweans believe that what they regard as little more than a mutual self-protection club will do any better than before. Jacob Zuma, South Africa's president and SADC's "facilitator" on Zimbabwe, is striving to strike a deal whereby the European Union lifts the targeted sanctions against Mugabe and some 200 of his closest comrades (who are banned from visiting the EU and whose assets there are frozen) in return for a pledge that the election will be free of violence and monitored by international observers.

But many Zimbabweans are sceptical. They do not believe the old man will ever keep his word when his power is at stake. Many fear a return to the murderous level of violence meted out by Zanu-PF militias for several months after the MDC's victory in the general election and the first round of the presidential one in 2008. Several Zanu-PF leaders have made clear that the party will not make the same mistake again: this time, the violent intimidation could start well before the next election. Some say it has already begun.

Tsvangirai has called for SADC and African Union peacekeeping forces to be sent into the country a full six months before the poll and to remain for several months after. But he must know this is most unlikely to happen. There has been renewed talk in Brussels and London of ways to bring about fresh elections under wider supervision. Mugabe has put out feelers to Britain's new government under David Cameron. But the British are wary of re-engaging without an enforceable new plan. They and the other Europeans, as well as the AU, still see Zuma as the main diplomatic conduit for mediation. Some in the secretariat of the Commonwealth, from which Zimbabwe is currently suspended, are exploring ideas for locking Mugabe into conditions under which the next elections can be fought, with the Commonwealth back as observers.

However, apart from the unyielding Mugabe, no one knows quite what to do. Just as Zimbabwe's economy has slowly begun to revive, the country once again faces uncertainty and fear.