The issue of corruption is assuming such proportions in India that every political party, affected or unaffected, is sounding horrified. The ruling Congress party is isolated with coalition members not defending the government.

I fear the situation may create an atmosphere reminiscent of the days when Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was alleged to have received kickbacks of Rs640 million (Dh53.3 million) in the Bofors scandal. His government even held a joint parliamentary committee's probe into the matter — something the Manmohan Singh government has refused to do in the present situation — but to no avail. Bofors came to substitute the word ‘corruption' even in the countryside.

The 2G spectrum scam reportedly running into Rs1.75 trillion has held public attention so far. Parliament was stalled during the entire winter session. The Commonwealth Games scam is another headache for the government. Yet I feel the 2G spectrum and the Commonwealth Games are elitist in appeal. Civil society is avidly interested, but not the general public.

The issue rocking the country is the money stashed away in Swiss banks. What makes it more explosive than other scams is the Supreme Court's involvement.

It has begun to hear public interest litigation (PIL) petitions seeking its intervention to force the government to bring back the money. The petitions have also sought disclosure of the names of account holders.

The government has been caught on the wrong foot. Some time ago it received as many as 26 names from Germany under the double taxation treaty. So why is Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee saying that the names cannot be disclosed?

In the dark

The fault lies with New Delhi which preferred to go through the double taxation route because it "wanted" the government to be put under an obligation not to disclose the names on the plea of confidence. There is yet no reason given why it opted for the double taxation method.

The Supreme Court has observed that the government should not presume that the money hidden in Switzerland is from tax evasion. It could be laundered money earned through gun-running, drugs, terrorism or some other crime.

There is as much as $1.45 trillion (Dh5.32 trillion) Indian money stashed away in Swiss banks, according to a 2006 Swiss Banking Association report. Dishonest industrialists, tainted politicians, corrupt bureaucrats, cricketers and film stars have all operate personal accounts in foreign banks where they probably stash away illegal money.

No wonder everyone in India loots with impunity and without any fear.

The stashed away cash is about 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt. This amount, if distributed among 450 million poor people, would pay each of them Rs100,000. From whichever angle you assess, this huge amount has been appropriated from the people of the country by exploiting and betraying them.

Once India gets back this huge amount of black money, it can clear its entire foreign debt at one go. After paying the entire foreign debt, India will be left with a surplus amount, almost 12 times larger than the total foreign debt. If this surplus amount is invested properly, the interest will be more than the annual budget of the central government.

So even if all the taxes are abolished, then the central government will be able to maintain the country very comfortably. I am talking on the basis of the 2006 figures. More money must have accumulated since.

Keeping tabs

New Delhi should find out how many Indians travel to Switzerland each year. "They may be travelling there for some other reason," believes an official involved in tracking illegal money. And, clearly, he isn't referring to the commerce ministry bureaucrats who have been flitting in and out of Geneva ever since the World Trade Organisation negotiations have begun.

Fortunately, Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi has said that the money stashed abroad belongs to the poor and must be brought back to India. I see the statement as a silver lining in otherwise dark clouds of secrecy and manipulation. He has said earlier that once his family takes up a matter it carries it to the logical conclusion. Let him prove this. The nation is waiting for the results.

The BJP and its allies in the National Democratic Alliance have said that they have no money abroad. This statement will put further pressure on the Congress and its allies. And some of the allies may begin to keep distance from the Manmohan Singh government. The government has no option, but to make the 26 names public. Maybe, the Supreme Court will force the government to do it. Then the fat will be in the fire.

The situation can meander first to the fall of the Singh government because of the allies deserting it and then leading to a hotchpotch government which may not last for more than a year. Ultimately, the country will be left with no option except to go for a mid-term poll.

 

- Kuldip Nayar is a former Indian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom and a former Rajya Sabha member.