In his latest article in the September issue of Foreign Affairs, Johan Bergenas wrote about "The Nuclear Domino Myth", where he explained that there are no signs the nuclear dominoes will fall anytime soon in the Middle East. He also expressed his belief that the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) will not collapse.
After Israel developed nuclear weapons capability in the late 1960s, no regional nuclear chain reaction followed, even though the country is surrounded by rivals. Nor was there even a two-country nuclear arms race in the region.
Similarly, it has now been four years since North Korea became a nuclear weapons state, yet South Korea and Japan have not followed suit, despite the fact that they have a latent nuclear weapons capability, and access to fissile material necessary for nuclear weapons.
These countries' decision not to go nuclear is largely thanks to extensive US efforts to dissuade them from it. Others point to the domino effect theory and its uselessness when it comes to foreseeing future events. They also cite the failure of former US president George W. Bush's project in the Middle East. Bush had adopted the domino effect theory, believing wrongly that the collapse of the Iraqi regime in 2003 will lead to the collapse of other regimes in the region.
The theory was used by successive US administrations during the Cold War to justify American intervention around the world.
However, the domino effect theory may only be a politicised term used by those who are captivated by theories and debates. Other terms have also been turned into theories such as the Crisis Theory, Critical Mass Theory, and the Creative Chaos Theory, among others.
India, for example, did not seek nuclear technology until China became a nuclear power. And Pakistan trod the nuclear path as a deterrent against India.
It is no secret that India had border issues with China over the McMahon Line, where a number of confrontations have taken place.
Furthermore, Pakistan and India have many disputes, most importantly Kashmir.
Nuclear programmes
The fact that Arabs have not sought nuclear capabilities as a reaction to Israel going nuclear doesn't make sense. Intentions cannot be translated into reality unless the proper financial and technical capabilities are available.
Nuclear weapons programmes need huge financial and human resources, which are missing in many Arab countries. The fate of the ambitious Iraqi nuclear programme of the 1970s is a case in point.
Everyone is aware of the motives behind a number of Arab countries, despite their oil wealth, wanting to possess nuclear energy and their agreements to buy electricity producing nuclear plants from the US and France. The search for nuclear plants came after the repercussions witnessed in the region, and after Iran's advances its worrisome nuclear programme.
Nuclear reactors provide advanced capabilities — in theory and practice — that may also assist countries in obtaining nuclear weapons technology when necessary.
It is also inappropriate to dismiss the effect of major events in a certain location on its surroundings. The repercussion of grave events is never confined to small areas. The US invasion of Iraq and the downfall of the Baathist regime are the gravest events to take place in the Middle East since the establishment of Israel in 1948.
Although the Iraqi regime's downfall did not lead to the toppling of other regimes in the region, it did raise alarm in many countries.
The major change in Iraq was followed by tangible changes in neighbouring countries. Opposition grew in these countries, and some insignificant reforms took place. Elections were held in places that never had them before, and reformist ideas have been in the air, with an increase in the activities of human rights organisations. All this indicates that the toppling of the Iraqi regime in 2003 left its imprint on the region.
In real life and politics, the physical action may be the result of long labour, where the whole process may have taken years and not minutes.
Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
