The events unfolding in the Arab world have surprised those within this pivotal region and outside. It was originally held that Tunisia was a sideshow unrepeatable in Egypt or elsewhere. The dramatic scenes and developments on Egypt's streets have, however, all but proven this assessment incorrect.
Escalating American calls for restraint, dialogue and change demonstrate that Washington is distancing itself from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The American objective is to safeguard its long-term interests in Egypt, the cornerstone of its Israeli-centric Middle East policy.
Therefore Mubarak will be given time in the hope that he can contain the situation. But America is positioning itself for change. An orderly transition, not chaos, would certainly be in everyone's interest.
So far the West has been reassuring itself that as in Tunisia, demands for regime change in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world are not due to the ‘Islamist' nationalistic movements that cause it the most concern.
Most probably while the leaders will change, the well-entrenched power elite will retain its dominant hold, but will be compelled to share power with Islamist and other opposition parties.
Popular perceptions rightly or wrongly attribute long suppressed discontent with American backing for autocratic regimes. So despite the continuing need for political, economic and military assistance from abroad in Egypt, there may well be certain consequences in areas which are now not being looked at.
One such consequence could be the re-emergence of Egypt's desire — since 1973 — for peaceful nuclear power generation to service the developmental needs of its swelling 80 million population. This may be accentuated by possible declining flows from the Nile given the assertive demands of the upper riparians and the establishment of an independent South Sudan.
Egypt is already apprehensive of a nuclear-capable Iran and may decide to follow the same model and achieve nuclear capability within the Non-Proliferation Treaty framework. The proposed regional conference on making the Middle East a nuclear-free zone, a hallmark of Egyptian non-proliferation policy, is unlikely to change the Israeli position and will heighten this inclination.
In Davos, the Saudis already stated that they will not forego their right to nuclear technology. At one time the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council decried Iran's nuclear power plant in Bushehr as a potential environmental threat. Now, they are all lining up for nuclear power plants to secure their energy needs and to hedge against Iran's growing nuclear capability.
In Pakistan, despite critics continually exaggerating what can go wrong, crises such as the Egypt protests underline the reality that Pakistan is a resilient country in much better shape than it is given credit for.
Despite the dual challenges of terrorism and poor governance, Pakistan has a working democratic dispensation. Political participation across all sections of the spectrum, a large and active media and an emerging strong judiciary constitute a dynamic polity which the Arab countries may now attain. The lesson of what is happening elsewhere should, however, not be lost on the Pakistani leadership and elite.
Paradoxically, while the West pressures Pakistan to do more to counter increasing terrorist and extremist tendencies accentuated by the US-led war on terror in nearby Iraq and next door Afghanistan, it presses Pakistan to follow a sound fiscal policy.
Distribution of wealth
Deep cuts in developmental and social spending, however, are causing increasing discontent and impact on stability. Economic policies must be modified to narrow the gap between the poor and those accumulating wealth at their expense.
India, with its strong links to Israel, is apprehensive of any weakening of the secular status of Egypt — its ally from the non-aligned movement days — and the probable emergence of stronger currents of sympathy for Muslim causes.
India is already struggling to contain the resurgence of indigenous political activism and protests in the part of Kashmir that it administers. And this comes at a time when it has increasingly allied itself to an America whose own influence is under threat in regions adjacent to India.
The direction of the change in the region cannot be mapped out with any certainty right now. All that can be said is that there will be change and the ability of western powers to chart the future of this important area according to their values, objectives and strategic/energy requirements is no longer as secure as they had earlier assessed and established.
It will be for the Arab countries to make the best use of the space they may gain to reach more equitable internal and external accommodations, remembering the proverb that ‘The voice of the people is the voice of God'.
Tariq Osman Hyder is a retired Pakistani diplomat who has studied in Iraq and Egypt.
