I concluded in my column ‘US allies find it hard to keep the faith’ a month ago in Gulf News that “The GCC states and other allies are questioning the US’s commitment and steadfastness. Some are even accusing the US of undermining their interests because of Washington’s policy or inaction, indifference and naivety in dealing with various crises and challenges gripping the region. There is real fear of the intended or unintended consequences of Washington’s policy and tactics. It is clear that the US and its GCC partners do not see eye to eye on many issues, but what about the trust factor and what is needed to mend the relationship, which as one analyst puts it is “becoming too close for comfort”.”
Since then, two things have happened. One is the open disagreement over the US policy in the Middle East that was driven home, especially after the open rift with the Saudis and other US regional allies; and second that although the US had dispatched Secretary of State John Kerry on a fence-mending and troubleshooting mission to allay the fears of its allies in the region, very little alleviation of apprehensions took place.
That forced President Barack Obama to phone Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to brief him on the possible breakthrough with Iran in Geneva over its nuclear programme. It happened after Netanyahu lashed out at any deal with Iran arguing “Iran got the deal of the century and the international community got a bad deal” which he would “utterly reject.” Vowing that he won’t be obliged to abide by it, Netanyahu made clear he would do “everything it needs to do to defend itself and the security of its people”.
The White House dismissed Netanyahu’s criticism of a deal with Iran as “premature.” However, there were no assurances or allaying the US’s GCC allies fears as the US had done for the Israelis. On the contrary, the US is moving in the same direction regarding all the issues that make the GCC states still question the wisdom and end game of the US strategy in the region. We see a retrenching US with less resolve, commitment and footprints.
Kerry visited the region again but achieved little when commensurate with the time and effort he is employing in the region. Kerry made the trip, that the Washington Post said “amounted to an emergency fence-mending trip to Saudi Arabia… Reassuring King Abdullah [Bin Abdul Aziz] in a rare and lengthy meeting that the United States considers the kingdom a major partner and regional power and that the Obama administration will step up its consultation on issues important to both nations.”
Maybe the only assurance which is yet to be tested, was Kerry’s vowing “The United States will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.” The discussion was cordial and diplomatic with King Abdullah and with his Saudi counterpart Prince Saud Al Faisal. Kerry went out of his way to shower praise on the Saudis describing Saudi Arabia as an indispensable ally.
The overture with Iran seems to be heading towards relaxing the crippling sanctions regime, which could embolden a beleaguered Iran. Moreover, the US is also making overtures to the sectarian government in Iraq as Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki was well received in the White House. And although, Prince Saud in Riyadh downplayed the disagreement between the US and Saudi Arabia and insisted the differences are over tactics not objectives, this does not mask the divergence over a host of issues between the two sides.
Clearly, the US cuts, wavering and lack of leadership role have not been unnoticed. On top of that there is a resurgent Russia in our midst chipping away at the US expense. A Financial Times article a few days ago, summarised the state of affairs in the region regarding the ebbing of the US status, versus the rising role of Russia, which I have argued, won’t be limited to Syria. The Financial Times put it: “Egypt turns to Russia as relations with Washington sour.” Over the last month, little has changed, and the US has failed thus far in allaying fears of its strategic partners in the GCC. The US continues to show much hesitation and lack of resolve in dealing with the thorny issues bedevilling the region. The Arab-Israeli peace process seems in disarray and regressing rather than progressing. The best Kerry could muster was describing the illegal colonies Israel keeps expanding in violation of international law as “illegal”.
Last week marked a landmark event in the charm offensive between the West, mainly the US, and Iran after decades of enmity, cold war and name-calling between the two sides. The state of detente between the US and Iran; the important meeting between Kerry and his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Jawad Zarif last week in Geneva to iron out an agreement over Iran’s nuclear programme; on and off negotiations with Tehran over its right to enrich uranium; its repeated vows through fatwas by its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei not to possess nuclear weapons; and crippling sanctions, convinced the Supreme Leader to give the green light for “heroic flexibility”. This gave traction and hope to the charm offensive.
Although, no breakthrough was reached and there is need for more negotiation to overcome the “important gaps” with Iran, but as Zarif puts it, “There is general outline of an agreement”. It is clear any deal would “offer Iran a gradual easing of sanctions in return for a freeze on expansion of nuclear activities.” Equally important to the breakthrough with Iran is ending the three decades of enmity and bickering with the US. This is causing consternation among the GCC states, which fear a grand bargain will give Iran a free hand and embolden its resolve and role in the region.
What worries the GCC states regarding the US Middle East policy is not only over Iran’s nuclear programme, but US lack of concern for GCC’s interests by limiting negotiations over the nuclear issue and not factoring in Iran’s meddling in the GCC affairs. The haste with which US tries to allay the Israelis fears and not the GCC’s is also disconcerting.
The confidence gap is growing between the allies, rather than narrowing. The onus is on the US to work harder to allay the fears and address the concerns of its GCC strategic allies sooner rather than later.
Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is the chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/docshayji
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