Important events in the Middle East have derailed Obama’s much-publicised “pivot to Asia”, as the Arab world’s fast-moving developments have grabbed the attention of the world’s superpower and stopped American thinkers from looking to Asia.
There is an obvious danger in this. As America’s foreign policy priorities veer around the globe, its allies fail to find consistent leadership which worries them and forces them to think of local or other alternatives. And this applies to America’s friends in Asia as much as it does in the Middle East.
“We are back and we are here to stay!” former US secretary of state Hilary Clinton announced dramatically in July 2010 when she confirmed American interest in close involvement in Asia at an Asean meeting. But three years later, President Barack Obama backed out at short notice of this October’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bali and the East Asia Summit in Brunei. This double snub sent a brutal message to those countries trying to resist Chinese dominance of the region, as Obama missed an important opportunity to press for issues like an Asian trade pact, or to use his substantial personal diplomacy to support allies concerned at China’s assertive maritime expansion.
In 2010, when Clinton spoke of the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia”, she announced a key part of the renewed American interest in Asia Pacific region would be that the US would deploy 2,500 US Marines in Australia, ready to respond quickly to any regional conflict. But this deployment did not happen, even if the US may still be committed to its original target of getting 2,500 Marines to a base in Australia by 2017. This lack of a current American military presence three years after the policy was announced underlines the growing questions about Washington’s commitment to its strategic “pivot to Asia”.
All these problems are part of why US Vice-President Joe Biden will travel to China, Japan and South Korea in December, on a trip supposed to emphasise the US commitment to Asia. Biden is a good choice, since he played a key part in building a good relationship with Xi Jinping before he became President last March. And it will be timely since Biden’s December trip will be the first by a senior US official to China after the important Communist Party Central Committee plenum to be held from Saturday when China is expected to unveil key economic reforms for the next 10 years.
But however much senior Americans run around Asia and try to persuade their friends that they are working to support them, Americans will still be thinking about the ever-consuming Middle East. Rather than going to China, Secretary of State John Kerry has been in Saudi Arabia, desperately patching up American relations with the Arab superpower, after a very public rift with their long-time strategic partner.
For many years, the Saudis had put up with America’s indifference to the plight of the Palestinians, but two recent events forced the Saudis into rare diplomatic action. The Saudis are open supporters of the Syrian opposition, so they were incandescent when the Americans refused to act against the regime of Bashar Al Assad after it gassed its own people. And closer to home in the Gulf, the possible American rapprochement with President Hassan Rouhani’s Iran has alarmed the Saudis, who have come to see Iran as their premier regional threat.
Kerry is also investing a lot of time in trying to find a political answer to the terrible Syrian civil war. Neither side is particularly interested in listening to him or his Friends of Syria grouping, but he is continuing to spend time trying to find a way forward.
Answering international queries
In addition, the Obama administration has made the mistake of assuming the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas have the political will and domestic strength to seek a solution to the Palestinian issue. The Americans have sponsored a series of talks from which they cannot walk away even if they do not get anywhere.
And finally, the Iranians are ready to talk about how to find enough transparency to answer international queries about their nuclear programme, which means the State Department is busy dusting off its Iranian files and preparing for genuine engagement with Iran through the P5+1 group. The remaining legacy of George Bush’s simplistic belligerency is no longer the answer.
With all of this Middle Eastern activity, it is hard to imagine that Washington will be able to focus on building its position in Asia where China has been the largest trading partner of all of the 10 members of Asean since 2009, and its direct investments are surging, bringing the Chinese increased economic and diplomatic influence.
In addition, China has shown that it can deploy forces far beyond its coastal waters, far from the mainland in what is the most sweeping shift in Asia’s maritime power balance since the collapse of the Soviet navy’s Pacific fleet. The US cannot ignore all this.
Therefore, America is in danger of falling between two stools. It has to find a long-term strategy in Asia to deal with what will be the most important global region for the next century, but it remains stuck with the endemic problems of the Middle East, which will not allow it to focus on Asia. A further challenge is that the US does not have an over-arching strategy in the Arab world and reacts to events as they happen, failing to offer a principled set of responses.
