Despite the recent improvement in the relationship between the world's two giant economies, Washington remains wary about China's rising power. US President Barack Obama may be enthusiastically marketing his G2 scheme of further economic cooperation with Beijing, but US media and academia are replete with articles and essays painting China as the most credible challenge to US global hegemony.
This is by no means a novel trend in US political discourse. In fact, since the end of the Cold War, China has been presented to the US public as the enemy of the 21st century. Although the Chin-ese government has since embraced capitalism as an economic system, the West remains sceptical. China's poor human-rights record, its totalitarian regime and conservative culture have seen it portrayed as the antithesis of western political and social values.
Among many other things, American analysts have complained about China's monopoly of US foreign debt, its "reckless" environmental attitude, its support for "authoritarian" regimes in Myanmar, Sudan and Iran, and its aggressive corporate practices. A major bone of contention in recent years has been China's undervalued currency, which is claimed to have a negative effect on the US trade balance.
The US has also expressed concerns about China expanding its influence into the Russian Far East, Mongolia, Central Asia and Southeast Asia. Beijing's attempts to secure a foothold in Latin America, East Africa and parts of the Middle East have also set alarm bells ringing in Washington.
Perceived threat
China's changing geopolitical and geo-economic map is transforming it into the hegemon of the Eastern Hemisphere. At least, the hegemon of the Western Hemisphere — the US — sees it this way. But how much truth is there to this argument?
Indeed, China possesses most of the attributes of a great power. Its economic potential is great. According to World Bank estimates, it will overtake Japan to become the second-largest economy by the end of this year. It has already replaced Germany as the world's largest exporter. China is also the biggest holder of hard currency, with a reserve that exceeds $2.2 trillion (Dh8 trillion). Geopolitically, China's size matches that of the US and it is home to one-fifth of the world's population. Its expanding industrial power, with an annual growth rate of about 10 per cent, has made it the second-largest consumer of oil, after the US. Militarily, China's expenditures have more than tripled over the past five years. It is estimated that Beijing spends up to $70 billion on military hardware, second only to the US. Its ability to project naval power in the East and South China Sea has been particularly alarming to US strategists.
All this does not make China an existential threat for the US, as many Americans would like to argue. At best, China can limit America's access to the Taiwan Strait. In addition, China's geographic growth is more an expression of a situation returning to normal, than it is of some power that means to do harm. Moreover, China has not historically been a proselytising power, like the United States or the former Soviet Union. It is not trying to promote any particular system of government. Rather, its main concern is to search for mineral wealth and oil and energy in order to raise the standard of living of one-fifth of humanity. This makes it a realist power that might pose a challenge for the US, but is by no means negative or evil.
China does not seem to be interested in any form of conflict with the US. It is also smart enough to avoid the sort of arms race that destroyed the Soviet Union. China has never stated that it aims to compete with the US for global hegemony or attain superpower status. At best, its intentions and potential could make it a regional power, notwithstanding its growing global presence.
If the US misinterprets China's natural attempts to expand its interests in the Pacific and adjacent regions, then the relationship is destined to be tense. If the US finds it difficult to adapt to new regional realities resulting from China's rising power, then confrontation is inevitable. One should keep in mind that at the end of the Second World War, China, Japan, Korea and the Philippines were all devastated. The US Navy controlled the Western Pacific as though it were an imperial lake. Those days are gone. The growth of the Chinese navy presages that, and this might irritate the US and make it feel that China poses a threat to its interests. However, it is up to the US to define China as a friend or foe.
Dr Marwan Al Kabalan is a member of the Centre for Strategic Studies and Research at Damascus University in Syria.
