If Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych feels as though the world’s on his shoulders, who can blame him when his country is caught in a tug of war between the US and Europe on the one side and Russia on the other. Captured in the middle are the Ukrainian people, themselves divided on which way to jump. Ukraine is a sovereign nation and thus its future should be a matter for its citizens and their elected representatives ultimately via a ballot box and, indeed, the president is believed to be contemplating calling early elections. Instead, manipulative world powers are working behind the scenes to decide its fate.
Vladimir Putin may be quietly doing his utmost to cling onto one of his country’s closest allies, but the US has been discovered with its hands in the cookie jar. Assistant US Secretary of State Victoria Nuland’s leaked phone conversation with the US Ambassador to Ukraine speaks volumes. While the media has focused on the expletive she used in reference to the EU’s mediation efforts, the real story has been glossed over.
Judging by the call, the Obama administration is actively involved in crafting Ukraine’s next government; it’s colluding with opposition leaders and badgering the United Nations to get involved in deal-making. Nuland has declined to discuss the content of a private phone call but she’s echoed the White House spokeswoman’s sentiments regarding the audiotape posted on YouTube under the heading “Puppets of Maidan” as being “a new low in Russian tradecraft”. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black! Earlier, Senator John McCain, who never ceases to pontificate on hot spots, told protestors in Kiev that the US will take “concrete action against the government if it cracks down on demonstrations or if Yanukovych chooses to enter into a custom and trade pact with Moscow.” Likewise, the EU’s Foreign Affairs Chief, Catherine Ashton, has jumped into the fray pretending to be neutral when she’s been cosying up to opposition leaders in the Maidan. An adviser to the Kremlin, Sergei Glazyev, has accused the US of both arming and funding demonstrators to the tune of $20 million (Dh73 million) weekly as well as training protesters on the grounds of the US embassy in Kiev. Interestingly, the opposition leader, Dmytro Bulatov, who’s been turned into the uprising’s icon since his kidnap, admitted that he revealed under torture that he received $50,000 from the US ambassador. Bulatov suffered a terrible ordeal but he’s milking its propaganda value.
There’s a history to US interference in Ukraine. The 2004 ‘Orange Revolution’ was no spontaneous event; it was rather manufactured by western political and corporate organisations, such as the International Republican Institute, the National Democratic Institute and Freedom House, a nonprofit human rights organisation based in Washington instrumental in the so-called ‘Arab Spring’, as the New York Times revealed in an April 20ll article titled ‘US groups helped nurture Arab uprisings’. Months of demonstrations in Kiev that began as a protest against the government’s decision to hold off on closer trade ties with the European Union have been simplistically painted in the West as a fight for good against evil; the crowds camped out in Kiev’s Maidan in below freezing temperatures are seen as the good guys, ordinary folk spontaneously battling for values and opportunities that the EU supposedly enshrines. They’re noisy and determined to achieve their goal of unseating the president but whether they’re furthering the aspirations of the majority is moot.
Price to pay
Sans statistics, we are left with the stereotypical view that the western part of Ukraine is oriented towards Europe while the industrial Russian-speaking heartlands in the east and the south are economically, historically and emotionally aligned with Moscow. Russia isn’t about to permit Ukraine to slip out of its geopolitical sphere of influence without a fight.
Moscow has warned that a shift to the EU would come at a heavy cost in terms of the loss of inexpensive gas, export revenues and over 400,000 jobs. Russia was the only country to offer aid to prop up its neighbour’s ailing economy with a whopping $15 billion of which $3 billion has reached Ukraine’s coffers. Delivery of the balance may be in jeopardy. Further tranches will now be suspended until Kiev first pays $2.7 billion in outstanding debts to Russian natural gas suppliers. The stated condition is a pretext. Moscow is keen to delay payment until it’s certain the wind’s blowing in its direction.
A bidding war is now in the offing. The EU that was formerly reluctant to dip into its pocket is now offering an aid package that includes loan guarantees and investments, a move that Ashton said isn’t just about “large dollops of money”. The US is also prepared to offer financial aid “dependent on reforms”.
We know what the West wants; we know what Russia wants. But what do Ukrainians want? Yanukovych should serve his people first and foremost and in that respect, he would be wise to hold a national referendum on the issue. Once Ukrainians have spoken, the suits engaged in a proxy power play will hopefully be gagged.
Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com
