Municipal elections in Turkey on March 30 will be decisive for the political future of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has been in power for more than a decade. Though municipal elections are always about local issues, this one in Turkey has national — even regional and international — significance. One of the peculiar things about Turkish elections is that whoever wins the municipal ballot can easily win the national vote, but the opposite is not necessarily true. Another important fact is that most AKP leaders have a municipal background — Erdogan himself was mayor of Istanbul in the mid-1990s and that post was his launch-pad to national politics. That explains why these local elections are crucial to Erdogan and his party.
In one of the campaign events, Erdogan vowed to resign if his party lost the municipal elections. It may not be a choice but necessity, especially if the incumbent mayor of Istanbul (an AKP candidate) loses to the opposition candidate of the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Though the AKP candidate for mayor of the city of 14 million is a few points ahead of the CHP candidate in recent polls, some analysts think the gap can be bridged and the opposition can bag the mayor’s seat. Istanbul is symbolic: First, it is where the AKP started gaining popularity due to economic reforms that steered Turkey successfully out of the global financial crisis more than five years ago. Second, Istanbul was where the protests against Erdogan and his government started, centred around the development of a public park.
Besides, the elections come at a time when Erdogan and his inner circle of AKP figures (including three ministers) are embroiled in a corruption scandal.
Erdogan’s response to the corruption issue was a bit arrogant, referring to it as a “conspiracy” by “foreign powers” and blaming a former ally, who turned against his rule: Religious leader Fethullah Gulen. Many in Turkey, and outside, are not buying that rhetoric and are not reassured by the ‘state of denial’ — that there is no financial malpractice or blatant corruption. Billions of dollars have gone out of Turkey in recent years and businesses are wary of investing in the country in such a chaotic period. The Erdogan government’s reaction to the corruption allegations was a harsh crackdown against the police and the judiciary, accusing them of targeting Erdogan and his men in order to help his adversary Gulen. Actually, Turkey’s economic ‘miracle’ is credited for Erdogan’s decade in power.
The economy was key to the AKP’s popularity, but the party may also lose its popularity because of the economy. In mid-1990s, Erdogan established his legacy by taking the Istanbul municipality out of debt, leaving it with a surplus in four years as mayor. Big infrastructure projects — like the Istanbul Metro — and ventures into new businesses were very successful. One remarkable project at the time was “Municipality Loaf”. Istanbul was suffering a bread shortage and Erdogan decided to bank on government credit to produce bread through municipality bakeries or in partnership with the private sector. Istanbul residents had the bread and the municipality made profit. Yet, some small and medium bakery businesses suffered. Expanding that model nationally gained praise for Erdogan and the AKP later on when they came to power. But it was not always without side-effects, as what may suit one city may not necessarily be the best for the country as a whole. Expansion of the model also created problems: Small and medium-sized businesses suffered as big businesses (and new ones linked to Erdogan’s men) grew, foreign ‘hot money’ poured into the economy creating a hidden risk and the “miraculous” growth became conducive to corruption.
One of the success stories could also be a reason for worry: The housing market. The property sector boomed in the decade since Erdogan came to power in 2002. Many of the luxury towers, some developed by foreign property developers, are more than half empty due to inflated prices. Though the Turkish people, on an average, saw their living standards improve by almost 50 per cent in a decade, many now worry about the prospects for the future. It may not be a cyclical change, but something closer to a deflation of the bubble, as most emerging economies fear.
Still, many support Erdogan and his AKP, especially in rural areas where people count on the “religiousness” of the party and easily buy its Islamist rhetoric. However, in urban areas like Istanbul and the capital Ankara, voters may punish Erdogan and his party. As people witnessed TV footage of stacks of dollars being taken out of the houses of ministers’ sons in the course of the corruption scandal, they saw the Erdogan government’s arrogance as a ‘cover-up’. Sections of the middle class are not as optimistic about economic opportunities as they were in 2007, for example. But in rural areas, where people’s expectations were not that high anyways, Erdogan and AKP still win the hearts of the “kind, religious” Turks. That is why the opposition candidate for Istanbul mayor once said in a campaign speech: “I come from a modest background. My sister wears a headscarf.”
If AKP loses or does not achieve good results in the municipal elections, it may suffer more in the general elections at the end of the year.
Dr Ahmad Mustafa is an Abu Dhabi-based journalist.
