The balance of power in the Gulf and the region at large has been dramatically altered during 2011 on at least two fronts. First the influence of the big regional powers has diminished noticeably. Second, the political influence of the small states, particularly Qatar and the UAE has increased measurably and they are comfortably in the driving seat.
The ongoing Arab Spring is a game-changer and has already created a power and a leadership vacuum. Nearly all the major regional powers, Iran, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Iraq, Syria and even Saudi Arabia are diminished at least by an inch, more or less. All of them are badly bruised and are strategically weaker than they were at the beginning of 2011. Their hard as well as their soft power is at its lowest at the moment. The region is visibly leaderless.
Egypt is totally preoccupied by its post-revolution domestic politics and needs years to make a comeback as a credible regional power. Iraq was irreparably knocked out as a regional power since 2003 and will stay off balance for years to come. Turkey, the darling of the neo-Islamists has made a politically embarrassing 180-degree turn in Syria and flip-flopped on so many occasions during the Arab Spring.
Iran is fading as a revolutionary model and is stuck to its ideological reading of the Arab Spring. It has to deal with mounting international pressure and is about to lose Syria, its most strategic regional ally.
Saudi Arabia seems to be politically stable but it is aging by the day and is probably heading for more political stagnation. The Syrian regime is going through a serious legitimacy crisis and facing a determined popular uprising. The downfall of the 40-year-old brutal Al Assad regime will have a profound impact on the regional balance of power. Israel has lost friendly Egypt and is in constant conflict with Turkey. It stands beleaguered and more isolated than it has ever been since 1948.
Standing tall
The net beneficiary of the shift in regional balance of power and the vacuum of leadership are the small states. Most of ‘the one inch' lost by the major league actors has been transferred to the minor league powers in the region. The dominant flow of influence these days run from the small states towards the big states.
Hence Tunisia, the youngest democracy in the world, stands one inch taller than Libya and Algeria. It is the new democratic trendsetter in the Arab world. Even the inherently weak and perpetually divided Lebanon is suddenly ‘one inch taller' and visibly more confident vis-a-vis its intrusive neighbour Syria.
More importantly, it is Qatar and the UAE that have gained the most from the leadership vacuum in the region and seem to stand not just ‘one inch' but several inches taller. They successfully capitalised on the power vacuum to display a unique leadership quality.
These two Arab Gulf States are resourceful, stable, think big and are full of confidence and have proven to be decisive and dependable when time comes to deliver. They have done surprisingly well during turbulent 2011 and are sitting comfortably in the driver's seat for the time being.
Even when one of them, namely Bahrain was in deep trouble they swiftly came to its rescue not just financially but by flexing their newly acquired military muscle. They acted independently of the US and stood up to Iran. The Bahrain experience revealed that the small Gulf states are comfortable working together. Thinking and acting as a group seems to be extremely rewarding.
The Libyan experience was equally important for Qatar and the UAE to flex their muscles. This high profile global role, standing shoulder to shoulder with Nato was a turning point for Qatar and the UAE. They took a huge gamble and it is paying off handsomely. Doha and Abu Dhabi are fast learning the art of the game of nations and playing it right.
Needlessly, the small states live in a turbulent region. Also the security concern of the small Gulf states is serious since they live in one of the most volatile and militarised regions on earth. In addition, although somewhat diminished, Iran remains a difficult neighbour always eager to expand its regional political influence.
American influence in the region is in retreat too. The US is at least one foot shorter than it was a decade ago. The new thinking in the Gulf is that America is still an ally, but an ally that is in a big economic and political mess back home. Confidence in America is eroding fast.
The sign "No Faith in Washington" is visible all over the place. To pull out militarily from Iraq is a good election tactic by US President Barack Obama but surely did not resonate well in Gulf capitals. America leaves Iraq as a mission not accomplished.
The view from the small states in the region is clear: as the regional and global powers shrink by the day, it is time the new kids in town fill the vacuum, flex their muscles and settle in the driver's seat. Most likely this relative shift in the regional balance of power continues throughout 2012 which might be just another good year for both Qatar and the UAE.
Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdullah is a professor of political science. You can follow him on www.twitter.com/Abdulkhaleq_UAE
