The Arab Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the UAE are used to living in a difficult region, but the tough neighbourhood is getting tougher by the day.
According to the global conflict tracker 2014 report, there are 12 cases of active armed conflicts in the region that extend from Pakistan to Morocco. That is more than all the armed hotspots in all of Africa and Latin America combined. The high concentration of wars makes the Middle East the most violent region on earth today. There are suddenly all sorts of wars fought in this turbulent Middle East: Sectarian wars, civil wars, regional wars, global wars, hot wars and plenty of old and new cold wars.
As a result, there have been, on an average, 40,000 or more deaths per year every single year since 2011. Syria counts for the most number of deaths — nearly 200,000 Syrians have been killed in four years of civil war. Iraq is next in terms of number of deaths, followed by Libya, Yemen and Palestine. There were more than 2,000 civilian causalities during 50 days of the Israeli war on Gaza just two month ago. The death toll in Libya has exceeded 3,000 and counting.
The sudden increase in home-grown and foreign-induced terrorist organisations has turned the Middle East into a jungle filled with Hobbesian wars of all against all. Fifty of the world’s most potent terrorist groups are active in the Middle East today. The UAE’s own list announced this week includes 85 terrorist organisations — 67 of which are based in the wider Middle East. The proliferation of militias in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Libya and Egypt is certainly a nightmare security situation for the states in the region and the world at large. The new varieties of heavily armed non-state actors are more ideologically determined, better-equipped, well-financed, cyber-sophisticated and have global appeal and are among the richest and deadliest in the world.
The top-ten richest terrorist groups are from this region. They control vast territories, resources and rule over millions. Additionally, some of these militias even possess unconventional arms capabilities, including missiles. In total, they command some 120,000 missiles of varying ranges, including missiles that are fitted for chemical attack. They make the dangerous Middle East umpteen times more dangerous.
There is no simple explanation as to why there is so much violence and so many non-state actors in this region. To reduce the various hotspots to either sectarianism or cold war jargon does not do justice to the complexity of the Middle East trauma. The sectarian war is one element of the Middle East puzzle. Lately, local and regional sectarian wars have been massively globalised by the 50-state coalition war against Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant). As for the new cold war discourse, it is too abstract and simplistic to explain the huge mess called the Middle East. Cold ‘warism’ analysis exhibits intellectual bankruptcy, which is typical of the so-called Middle East experts.
All tend to ignore the powerful impact of two forces that have been unleashed in the strongest way possible in recent years. The first force is the force of change that was unleashed quite unexpectedly in 2011. Force of change is mostly associated with the nearly four-year-old Arab Spring. The infamous Arab Spring awakened the youthful Arab masses and exploded with pro-democracy demands. The goals of the forces of change were noble: Freedom, dignity and democracy. What they have got so far is more uncertainties and extremism.
The second force is the dark force of radicalism, extremism and chaos. This is the force of change gone totally out of control is places like Syria and Iraq, Libya and now Yemen. Unlike the forces of change, the intention of the forces of extremism is not to change governments, but to end nation states as it has evolved over the past 120 years in the Arab world. It wants to end nation states, demolish borders and dismantle modernity. By its very nature, the forces of extremism are violent, destructive and destabilising.
Both forces are at work simultaneously on the region, challenging governments and nation-states, creating, in the process, much of the current malaise, confusions and uncertainties. They are changing the ground rules, reshaping the destiny of the region and creating new geopolitical conditions that further weaken the already weak Arab governments and invite regional and global intervention to fill in the vacuum.
Whether it is expansionist Iran or the clumsy US, or apartheid Israel, they all add more chaos to an already chaotic Arab world. Regional meddling and global intervention have never been benign. They are self-serving and tend to make the bad situation worse by bringing in more misery to the people in the region.
The Arab Gulf states live in this perpetually unstable and extremely tough neighbourhood. The good news is that they are getting used to it and know how to survive the odds. Over the years, they have grown confident to face regional challenges of whatever magnitude. Despite regional uncertainties, they are full of economic growth. The International Monetary Fund projects 5 per cent growth for the year 2014 and beyond. These are the new, more assertive and ready-to-take-the-risk Arab Gulf states. They managed to successfully ward off the forces of change. They are now at the forefront, fighting dark forces of extremism and are determined to defend moderation and stability of the region. The message from the Arab Gulf capitals is if the US cannot do the job, they just have to go out and do it on their own.
Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdulla is professor of Political Science. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/Abdulkhaleq_UAE
