It will take few days, maybe even weeks, for the final results of Afghanistan’s historic presidential elections to be known. More than seven million Afghans dared threats by the Taliban and voted in Saturday’s election; about 58 per cent of those eligible. Surprisingly, the vote was largely uneventful. The people of Afghanistan wanted a peaceful transition of power. But that is only one way to look at it.

It is too early to say who will become Afghanistan’s next president, succeeding the incumbent Hamid Karzai, 56, who has ruled this turbulent and deeply divided country for 13 tumultuous years. Karzai is barred from running for a third term but he remains a potent power broker, even though he is no longer the darling of western powers, especially the US.

Afghanistan and Karzai were thrust onto the world stage following the lethal terrorist attacks on the US in September 2001. The United States soon responded with a major offensive that toppled the radical rule of the Taliban and paved the way for a multinational invasion and occupation of Afghanistan.

Karzai, who was backed by the Bush administration, soon appeared on the local stage. He was a well educated, smart and visionary man who was able to rally local support from heads of tribes, warlords, former Mujahideen and others. Thus Karzai presented himself as an indispensible leader at a time when Afghanistan was under occupation by foreign troops for the second time in 30 years. Karzai was Washington’s man but he also believed that he could emerge as a popular leader who could unite his countrymen and deliver prosperity to his war-torn country.

Indeed he attempted to revive traditional institutions like the loya jirga, where he established himself as an elderly statesman who spoke the language of his people. He was able to justify foreign presence for a while, but he certainly sided with his people when things went wrong. And many things did go wrong. The Taliban were overthrown but not defeated. And soon they were re-establishing themselves in many governorates. The West’s military campaign was far from over. The Taliban were able to strike in the heart of Kabul and Kandahar and others.

Karzai became critical of drone attacks that claimed the lives of hundreds of innocent civilians. Tens of billions of dollars that were supposed to be spent on reconstruction and development failed to improve the lives of millions of Afghans. The United States had shifted its attention to another difficult war in Iraq. Karzai was frustrated, but he realised that there was no way to beat the Taliban; a political solution was needed.

By the time Barack Obama took office in early 2009, the situation in Afghanistan was not encouraging. The US could not withdraw because the Taliban were getting stronger. America’s allies were fed up and wanted an exit strategy. Karzai was preparing for his second term and somehow he and Obama did not see eye-to-eye. In the eyes of some in Washington Karzai had turned native. He was now looking to end the war even if that meant coming to terms with the Taliban. He became suspicious of his neighbours, such as Pakistan, and did not trust the Americans.

There are indications that the Americans wanted to spoil the 2009 presidential elections and that Karzai was targeted. Accusations of large-scale fraud from all sides drove a wedge between Kabul and Washington. Still Obama was convinced by his generals that a surge in troops, which Karzai was against, was needed to overcome the Taliban before deadlines for withdrawal were set. And so the war dragged on for few more years with no political end in sight.

Afghan capability

Differences between Karzai and Obama reached a climax when the former refused to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that would keep some US troops in Afghanistan after the 2014 pullout. Karzai still believed that the Afghans were capable of sorting out their problems without the need for foreign intervention.

As he prepared to leave office, Karzai wanted to maintain a role in the future of his country. The burden of US interference was too much for him to handle. It is difficult to see what comes next in Afghanistan. The fact that Karzai was able to survive, literally, for more than a decade is an achievement in itself. But with Afghan troops taking over from foreign fighters no one really knows what the future holds for his successor.

Perhaps if American troops leave his country he will be able to achieve reconciliation, especially if his own candidate, former foreign minister Zalmay Rassoul, wins the presidency. He can still play the role of the state elder and call on his peers to meet and find a solution to Afghanistan’s complex problems. Karzai is thinking of his legacy and having left the ambit of US control he may be thinking of reinventing himself. One thing is certain: his influence on Afghan politics will continue for some time to come.

 

— Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.