Opinion | Columnists
Syria's influence is on the rise
Obama has quickly concluded what dawned on Bush too late - that much in the Middle East depends on Damascus.
- By Sami Moubayed, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:11 August 24, 2009
- Image Credit: Illustration: Ramachandra Babu/Gulf News
Perhaps due to the growing violence in Yemen and Iraq, international and Arab media have glossed over the news that Hamas has finally agreed to the Arab Peace Initiative first proposed by Saudi King Abdullah, which calls for collective Arab recognition of Israel in exchange for the return of occupied land. The change in Hamas' stance has Syria's fingerprints all over it.
The US administration is yet to comment officially on the matter, although the moderation of Hamas' policies has been a recurring demand from the Obama White House.
Meanwhile, the knowledgeable Lebanese daily Al Akhbar reports that US President Barack Obama has transferred the Syria-Lebanon file from the State Department to the White House. This is an interesting development, given that the White House is theoretically less subject to pro-Israel lobbies than other departments, and could herald further improvements in relations between Washington and Damascus. A second US military delegation visited Damascus this month, followed by Fredrik Hoff of the George Mitchell team, to discuss security in Iraq and the dormant peace process, and there is heightened speculation that a new US ambassador to Damascus will be named late next month.
While all of that was happening, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad landed in Tehran to congratulate his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his presidential victory in June. In mid-August, Syria used its considerable influence in Iran to free a French citizen held by Iranian courts, according to French President Nicolas Sarkozy. This fits in neatly with earlier Syrian efforts to moderate the influence of Tehran. During the Lebanese Civil War in the 1980s, Syria helped to secure the release of scores of American and European officials held captive by militias close to Iran - notably, the then president of the American University of Beirut, David Dodge. In 2007, Syria helped release 15 British sailors taken captive in Iranian waters, as well as BBC reporter Alan Johnson, held in the Gaza Strip by militias close to Hamas. More recently, the Syrians have been 'invited' by the US to play a greater role in Iraqi affairs, in the hope that they can use their considerable influence with Iraqi tribes to bring normalcy to areas in which the Sunni insurgency continues.
Meanwhile, violence ripped through Yemen and Iraq. Officials in both countries blamed the attacks on Iran, although Iraqi officials also pointed fingers at Al Qaida and former Baathists. In Baghdad, nearly 100 people were killed, and attacks took place within the Green Zone, targeting the Iraqi parliament and various government buildings, including the Ministry of Defence.
When disturbances snowballed in Iran earlier this summer, there were two views on what Iran's future role within the Arab region would be. One was that because of the domestic turmoil, the Iranians would be less likely to influence proxies in the region - such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, Shiite groups in Iraq and, according to the Yemenis, the Houthis in their country. The conflicting view was that Iran would become even more aggressive in an effort to divert attention away from its domestic problems. Either way, Syria stands to benefit. If the Iranians decide to take a hands off approach, Syria's leverage will increase in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq. And if Iran takes a more active role, Syria will get the chance - again - to play the role of mediator.
It is now generally accepted that Obama is not interested in weakening the Iran-Syria relationship. On the contrary, Obama sees it as a blessing in disguise. When the Baker-Hamilton Report was issued in 2006, it clearly stated that any breakthrough in the Middle East would be dependent on the support of Syria or Iran and would require the Golan Heights to be returned to Syria. George W. Bush realised too late that talking to the Syrians was less difficult than trying to hammer out deals with the Iranians. The Syrians don't have a history of anti-Americanism, and they have proven time and again that they are capable of stabilising the region. Obama picked up on this immediately and has sent numerous signals that Washington is anxious to work with Damascus.
If that is the case, many are curious as to why Lebanon is still in a political stalemate, with Prime Minister designate Sa'ad Hariri unable to form a Cabinet eight weeks after he was mandated to do so by President Michel Sulaiman. Didn't the Syrians and the Saudis settle their differences in January, paving the way for a new dawn in relations between Hezbollah and the pro-Saudi March 14 Coalition? Apparently the Saudis are waiting to gauge how strong the Syrian-US relationship is before deciding the extent of their cooperation. They are also waiting to see how Iran will react to the changing status quo. The Saudis remain warm and inviting; with officials saying that relations with Damascus are excellent ahead of an upcoming visit by King Abdullah to Syria.
Other factors that need to be taken into account include a preliminary report by the international Hariri tribunal, due next month, and the expiration of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon's current mandate on Monday.
While the Lebanese and Saudis wait to see what Syria and Hezbollah will do in the coming months, there are growing calls in the US for greater cooperation with Syria.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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