Following the recent Toulouse shootings, many observers wondered whether President Nicolas Sarkozy would take advantage of the tragedy and stop being "an outgoing president ... to being a president-protector", as the Financial Times quoted Jacques Seguela, vice-president of the Havas advertising group, as saying.
Switching into crisis-management mode is indeed something Sarkozy is known to enjoy, just like he obviously loves getting closer every day to far-right National Front voters. His recent opposition to clerics like Yousuf Al Qaradawi visiting France is another move towards what has now become his ‘security-first' campaign. Sarkozy supports Islamists in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt or Syria, but not in France. Luring far-right leader Marine Le Pen's voters paid off in the last election in 2007 and might well work again.
His brusque manner, unpopular image, relentless pro-activism as opposed to actual achievements, will not change. Even though he still lags behind socialist candidate Francois Hollande for the second round, he now believes — or pretends to believe — that "he can make it".
In this lacklustre campaign, which is hopefully coming to an end, something unexpected happened, which is changing the political landscape: there was a ‘third man' in the race.
Senator Jean-Luc Melanchon, a former socialist who teamed up with the French communist party, will now be able, according to some polls, to surpass centrist candidate Francois Bayrou and maybe even Le Pen.
It is of little consequence as Melanchon has nearly no chance of qualifying for the second round, but it may change the deal. The new balance which is now being created in the left camp will force Hollande to make his programme lean more towards the left, which may prevent others from following him despite their uneasiness with Sarkozy.
Regalian issues
The ‘maverick' candidate has reacted quickly to it and is now focusing on so-called ‘regalian issues', such as security or immigration. Following daily announcements of new measures which have little chance of being passed into law, the president is now claiming he is the only one who can really protect the population.
A bunch of ‘terrorists' were arrested some days ago, another proof of Sarkozy's dedication to security (and a way to make the people forget that the Toulouse killer, although he was "attentively monitored for the last two years by the domestic security forces", was still able to amass weapons without much difficulty).
Hollande built up his campaign based on people's rejection of Sarkozy's image. But the odds are now changing; Hollande is himself facing difficulties with people's lack of enthusiasm for his campaign.
Will all that be sufficient "to save Private Sarkozy"?
It is doubtful. The campaign has proved to be one of the worst the French have witnessed since the inception of the Fifth Republic. Major issues, both domestic or international, were hardly tackled by the various candidates.
A necessary redefinition of French foreign policy, a fight against rampant deterioration of the relationship between the private and public sectors, with the associated corruption, a serious move against unemployment and lack of growth imposed by German austerity measures, a serious effort against crime — all these issues deserve more serious comments and deeper commitment than what was on offer from the candidates.
But more important is the expectations of the people. The issue of the day is not knowing whether the meat they eat is ‘halal' or not (a fascinating debate that lasted for three weeks) but what is their near future likely to be. How long will they have to work until they can retire with dignity? How long will people have to wait until they find a new job? Will they get a loan from their bank (European banks which used the cash facility from the European Central Bank these past few months invested in bonds — making a hefty profit — instead of lending to the real economy)?
What are the chances France doesn't turn into another Greece and what should be done to ensure that that doesn't happen? These are some of the topics one would normally expect to see debated during a presidential campaign.
So the French, it seems, will have to wait for another occasion. They will express a first choice in three weeks' time but their actual thoughts might well be expressed only two months later when parliament elections are held.
For the time-being, no one would run the risk of saying who the winner will be, suffice to say that the results will be much closer than anticipated. Issues like socialist Strauss Kahn's indictment in a prostitution ring, Sarkozy's 2007 campaign financing scam, etc, will pop up at the last minute. But the kind of ‘benefit' the country will draw from it will be as delusive as the campaign itself.
Luc Debieuvre is a French essayist and a lecturer at IRIS (Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) and the FACO Law University of Paris.
