At their upcoming 30th annual summit in Abu Dhabi on December 6, the six GCC states are going to make it amply clear that regional security remains a top policy priority. Ever since the establishment of the GCC in May 1981, Gulf security has been a genuine concern to these relatively small and vulnerable states.

The security concern is not likely to lessen any time soon and is dragging the region into a fresh round of the arms race. The fundamental logic of the latest multi-billion dollar weapons procurement drive is to achieve strategic parity with the mighty Iran. The militarisation and the nuclearisation of Iran's domestic and foreign policy is bound to increase regional tensions and keep the already concerned GCC states even more concerned about Iran's real intentions.

Additionally, the GCC states need to beef up their military capabilities in anticipation of a possible military confrontation between Iran and the United States. This worst case scenario, of a fourth Gulf war, cannot be easily ruled out if the current tight UN economic sanctions fail to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Hence, from a GCC perspective, security challenges are abundantly clear and come from all directions. To the north there is the politically unstable and volatile Iraq. Fragile Yemen to the south is a potential strategic liability as it heads into a failed-state status. The difficult Iran to the east is becoming more difficult to understand and predict.

Indispensable partner

There is also the US, which despite the close relationship is no longer as reliable as it used to be. Washington still has some 120,000 soldiers all over the place. It is still the only superpower around and it is certainly an indispensable partner.

But trust in the US is eroding fast and it is probably at its lowest because of America's mishandling of Gulf security. Its miserable performance in Iraq and Afghanistan and its confusing behaviour towards Iran are not convincing.

The GCC states thought for a while that the downfall of the Saddam Hussain regime in 2003 would bring peace and stability to the Gulf region. But seven years later the region is far from being stable and secure.

Indeed a militarily weak Iraq sitting next to politically emboldened Iran, is not a reassuring regional security formula. Washington is fully responsible for creating this new regional malaise.

On top of this the GCC states are also an integral part of the wider Arab world which is considered one of the most violent regions in the world today. The Middle East is full of failed states, fragile states, frozen states, militant groups, jihadist organisations and radical ideologies.

The unsettling geopolitics of the region are enough reason to keep security as top policy priority. No wonder that the GCC states that are full of cash are spending $120 billion (Dh440.7 billion) to buy sophisticated fighter jets and state-of-the-art military hardware from the US.

All eyes, however, are on Iran as much as they are alert to the turbulent surroundings. The GCC states are fully determined to match Iran step by step and go all the way to the very end, including developing their own nuclear options.

If Iran eventually chooses to develop its nuclear capabilities, the GCC states, either collectively or individually, will go nuclear too. They are not going to stand idle and accept as fait accompli the emergence of Iran as a nuclear power which drastically alters the current delicate balance of power in favour of Tehran. This is fiercely resisted not just by Saudi Arabia and the smaller GCC states but even by Iraq.

Hegemonic struggle

These states are not going to succumb to the "Persianisation" of the Gulf. Tehran's insistence on the ‘Persian Gulf', as the sole name of this strip of water is more than semantic. It entails among other things accepting Iran's hegemony and Tehran as the ultimate centre of power in the region that decides on major issues of importance to Gulf security.

The ever-changing geopolitics of the Gulf indicates that the regional arms race has developed a logic of its own. It is virtually unstoppable.

But the arms race makes the already tense Gulf even more tense. The more Gulf nations spend on weapons, the more they collectively feel threatened. And the more they feel threatened the more they have to spend money for defence and security.

The arms race makes regional powers, such as Iran more threatening, and the smaller states, such as those in the GCC, will never feel secure no matter how much they spend on defence.

It is a dangerous game and wasteful vicious circle. Sadly no one is in a position to stop it — certainly not the upcoming GCC summit in Abu Dhabi.

 

Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdullah is a Professor of Political Science at Emirates University.