US President Barack Obama’s visit to Saudi Arabia last Friday did not solve, and was not intended to solve, all the differences between the two long-time allies. Officials on both sides would agree that besides the many common interests, they could talk about as many differences. Indeed, the Saudis are well aware that the “pivot to Asia” — Obama’s foreign policy doctrine — means that Washington will focus more on the Pacific. Yet, this shift in focus will not make the Gulf region less important in any meaningful way for the US or the rest of the world,

In fact, the very location of the Gulf region makes it a unique geopolitical phenomenon. Its strategic importance stems from its weight in the global energy market and its regional political influence. The region holds almost half of the world’s oil reserves and quarter of its gas reserves — a fact that catalyses interest in its security and future. For the same reason, the major powers jostle for influence over the region and are further spurred by their concern to secure the routes for transporting oil — particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries great strategic importance.

Indeed, the geopolitical importance of the Gulf region has been disputed in recent years, Some argue that the region’s importance will shrink as a result of increased global shale oil and gas production, whereby the US will become the world’s leading producer of fossil fuels in the near future. Advocates of this position also cite US withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan as proof underlining the decreasing importance of the region.

Others take the opposite view, however, arguing that even though it will be the world’s biggest producer, the US will not achieve self-sufficiency in liquid petroleum until 2040. Hence, the Gulf region will maintain its relevance and importance. Furthermore, in parallel with American efforts to reduce reliance on Gulf oil, the Southeast Asian states, which today drive the world economy and account for almost 50 per cent of global gross domestic product, will increase their own reliance on Gulf oil and gas.

Strategic perspective

Meanwhile, the US economy is set to become more dependent on the Asian economies, which are the major investors in US Treasury bonds and the main sources of fund for the federal government.

From a strategic perspective, America’s military presence in the nearby oil fields of the Gulf and American control of pertinent sea lanes will remain the key tools of American influence in East Asia and the Pacific. Moreover, Arab Gulf oil will remain the benchmark for world oil prices, while its low cost will always make it more economically attractive and viable.

Furthermore, as tensions between Russia and the West grow as a result of various regional and international crises, Ukraine being the most recent, Europe will grow more reliant on Gulf oil and gas as it tries to find alternatives to Russia’s hold over its energy supplies. China and the Arab Gulf states will also seek to strengthen their relations ahead of the anticipated US-Iranian rapprochement. This must be understood in context, whereby China is the world’s second-largest consumer of energy and Arab oil is the closest to it geographically.

In addition, as a result of the blow to the Gulf states’ confidence in their traditional western allies caused by recent regional and international developments, their blossoming relations with the Asian tigers, especially China, will permit the Gulf states to diversify their range of options and expand their economic and political interests, rather than rely entirely on the West.

Growing Iranian influence

Regionally, the Gulf states have, for the first time, assumed a leading political role. They directly confront growing Iranian influence, whereas in the past they had relied on others to perform that task, such as Iraq under Saddam Hussain. Iraq’s collapse as a regional power, as a result of the US occupation, and its subsequent fall under Iranian influence, threatens the security of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. This has prompted some GCC states to call for more effective policies to confront Iran, evidenced, in part, in their military intervention in Bahrain and the direct support for the Syrian revolution.

The significance of the role played by the Gulf states has increased in recent years and they now comprise a central part in Arab politics as a result of the absence of the pivotal states — Syria, Iraq and Egypt — particularly following the Arab Spring revolutions and the profound changes they provoked.

All this will make the Gulf region as important and relevant as it has ever been and justify Obama’s visit to Saudi Arabia last week.

Dr Marwan Kabalan is the Dean of the Faculty of International Relations and Diplomacy at the University of Kalamoon, Damascus.