The timing of the general election call by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must be seen as more than just coincidental, with the military strikes on Damascus recently. It is true what many, especially in Israel, are saying — that Israeli military strikes were to deflect the crisis in the government and the split within the ruling coalition of extreme rightists and the centre-right, thereby triggering a general election.
The present government, now no more than an executive authority till the March 17 polls and only formed in early 2013, will continue to be a minority interim administration with no serious teeth. But Netanyahu had his dream come true and is now definitely veering further to the extreme right and sharpening his hawkish stands on Palestinians, global relations and colonists in the West Bank to secure a wider constituency and win a fourth term as Prime Minister. What got the electoral ball rolling is Netanyahu’s frustration with two of his main coalition partners — the Yesh Atid Party of Finance Minister Yair Lapid, with 19 parliamentary seats; and the Hatnua Party of Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, with six seats. These ministers were sacked because they had for long wanted to pass a policy and continue with peace negotiations — clearly against Netanyaahu’s right-wing leanings. Netanyahu in particular, and some of his Likud party members, were glad to get rid of Lapid and Livni — the latter a long-time Likud member and now has a new party of her own. She was “embarrassed” about the deadlocked peace process.
On hindsight, the ruling coalition was destined to reach a dead-end because of the divergent policies of its different members. The Israeli economy is trailing behind, cost of living is exorbitant, treasury is strained because of Netanyahu’s costly war on Gaza last summer and recrimination over tax incentives for first-time home buyers created much squabbling within the cabinet. This was strained by labour strikes with a new minimum wage demanded, spending on colonies in the West Bank and the discriminatory new draft bill, making Israel the home of the Jewish people.
Although the government is no more than 20 months old, and one of the shortest since Israel was created in 1948, in the end, Netanyahu, a political ideologue with an extreme right-wing agenda, preferred to seek a fresh mandate. He triggered the Knesset’s dissolution with Israel finding itself in election mode and preparation for an electoral campaign in the hope that he will lead again with the ultra-orthodox religious parties like Shas and the United Tora Judaism as his new allies. They did not join the last government after the 2013 polls.
But Netanyahu — already the second longest-serving Israeli prime minister at nine years, after David Ben-Gurion, who had served for 13 years — would not have called snap polls if he had not thought he would win, along with the other religious and nationalist parties. The National Home Party of Naftali Bennet and Israel is our Home Party of Avigdor Lieberman were already in the government, but wanted an election to increase their seats in the Knesset and no doubt more political concessions.
However, it is not as straight-forward as it may seem. At first, it appeared from opinion polls that Likud would win between 20-24 seats in the 120-seat Knesset and that his allies, the Jewish Home Party and the Our Home Party, will get 17 and 12 seats, respectively, in the 20th Knesset. This means Likud would, while not riding sky-high, be able to form a new government. But things are not so clear cut. Another opinion poll by Jerusalem Post and Hebrew newspaper Ma’ariv suggests an alliance between Livni’s Hatnua Party and the Labour Party would garner 24 seats. That could be boosted by Meertz and also the other religious parties who usually prefer to keep their cards close to their chest and would pledge their allegiance to whoever gave them more money and concessions.
But there is another jack-in-the-box. Despite the fact that he has been years at the political helm and in government with much experience, the Likud rank and file maybe becoming weary of Netanyahu’s persona. He has an abrasive style of leadership, definitely not seen as a consensus politician, and many see him as going back on his word — as the case at the end of Israel’s deadly war on Gaza, when he acknowledged Tel Aviv would end its eight-year-old siege, but later reneged. Also, he is seen as somebody not “endearing” with political science professor Ira Sharkansky of the Hebrew University saying the prime minister is “widely described as a liar and unreliable”.
Many voices are being heard today, among newspaper columnists, giving the Israeli prime minister the thumbs down. One such voice in Haaretz, Israel’s leading liberal daily, says ‘Bibi’ [Netanyahu] will badly lose the coming election. The term “Bibi-fatigue” is being brandished and buttressed by yet another poll that states 60 per cent of respondents said they did not want Netanyahu to remain Prime Minister.
This tension in Likud and the fact that party members are bracing to run against Netanyahu as the party chairman, means he will likely use the next three months to garner as much support among the extreme right in Likud as he can, appeal to the religious vote by pumping in more cash in their schools in colonies in the West Bank — as he had promised to do with Shas recently — and court the ultra-nationalists again. He is seen as a clever politician, especially when he uses the security trump card against Hamas, while demonising Hezbollah, Syria, Iran and of course, bashing the Palestinian National Authority.
For Netanyahu, the electoral war may have already started. The recent death of Palestinian Minister Ziad Abu Ain, in charge of the Anti-Wall and Anti-Settlements [Colonies] Commission — after clashes with the Israeli army — may well be setting the tone for how Israel wants to deal with Palestinians. Netanyahu will probably be eager to use the incident to paint the Palestinians as a never-ending security threat, while building as much electoral support as he can for his camp.
Marwan Asmar is a commentator based in Amman. He has long worked in journalism and has a Phd in Political Science from Leeds University in the United Kingdom.
