Most of the world's media focuses on the Russian position on the Syrian crisis, attempting to understand and explain the motives which have made Moscow take a firm stand in support of the Syrian regime. But China, the other permanent member in the United Nations Security Council that alongside Russia used the veto twice to block a western-sponsored resolution to condemn the Syrian regime for using disproportionate force against the protest movement, was completely overlooked.
Unlike Russia, China has very limited interests in Syria and that was perhaps the reason that made it difficult for many to understand its position in support of the Syrian regime. In fact, trying to understand the Chinese position from a narrow perspective that focuses mainly on Syria is quite unhelpful. We need to see the Chinese policy in a wider context that usually includes its relations with the other great powers, mainly the US.
To start with, it is important to mention that Chinese-US relations have markedly deteriorated under the Obama administration. From the very beginning, Beijing was not happy with the election of Obama. It favoured the Republican candidate in the 2008 presidential elections. Under the Republican administration of George W. Bush, US-Sino relations reached an unprecedented level of co-operation. After the September 11, 2011 attacks in the US, Bush dumped the policy which presented China as the next enemy of the US and focused instead on the Islamic world as part of his ‘war on terrorism'. China was very delighted with this policy shift. It helped Beijing suppress its own Muslim minority in Xinjiang province under the pretext of fighting terrorism.
When Barack Obama came to power, he reversed the policy. His major concern was to retreat from the Islamic world and focus on the economy. Given the huge deficit in the balance of trade between the world's two largest economies, a clash of interests was inevitable. Obama started to put tremendous pressure on China to stop devaluing its currency. China, which depends mainly on exports, resisted the US pressure. Politically, Obama upset the Chinese when he received in the White House the Dalai Lama, the Tibet spiritual leader, a strong advocate of Tibetan independence from Chinese control. To make things worse, Obama agreed to sell Taiwan advanced military equipment to improve its defence capabilities.
The straw that broke the camel's back in Sino-US ties was the announcement last November of the so-called ‘Obama Doctrine'. The new doctrine was briefly mentioned by Obama during a meeting in the Pentagon but was outlined by the State Department. "The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the US will be right at the centre of the action", Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, who has been entrusted with defining the new US foreign policy strategy, wrote in Foreign Policy magazine last November. "In the next 10 years, we need to be smart and systematic about where we invest time and energy, so that we put ourselves in the best position to sustain our leadership, secure our interests, and advance our values. One of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade will therefore be to lock in a substantially increased investment — diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise — in the Asia-Pacific region", Clinton explained.
Feeling the pressure
By announcing this strategy, the Obama administration has literary said that China is the US No 1 global challenge. This shift in policy must have alarmed the Chinese who already started to feel the pressure in major ways. The economic downturn in Europe and the US, China's two main customers, has exposed Chinese exports to increased competition and decreased appetite. Meanwhile, China has been unable to appropriately increase domestic demand and guarantee access to global sea-lanes independent of what the US Navy is willing to allow. Those same economic stresses also challenge China domestically. The wealthier coast depends on trade that is now faltering, and the impoverished interior requires subsidies that are difficult to provide when economic growth is slowing substantially.
In the light of the change which engulfed the Arab region over the past year and supported by the West, China fears that these economic conditions could lead to similar outcomes. In addition, two of China's buffer regions are in flux. Elements within Tibet and Xinjiang adamantly resist Chinese rule.
China understands that the loss of these regions could pose severe threats to its security, particularly if such losses would draw India north of the Himalayas or create a radical Islamic regime in Xinjiang.
China has been recently complaining about increasing US support for independence ambitions in these two regions. There are indeed other aspects of the increasing tension in US-Sino relations but Syria is not one of them. By using the veto in the UN Security Council to block a resolution on Syria, China was merely inviting the West to talk about its own concerns.
Dr Marwan Kabalan is the Dean of the Faculty of International Relations and Diplomacy at the University of Kalamoon Damascus, Syria.
