The high-profiled traffic from Washington to Delhi, since Narendra Modi’s election as India’s Prime Minister more than three months ago, has included heavyweights from US President Barack Obama’s cabinet such as the secretaries of state, defence and commerce, besides Senator and former presidential aspirant John McCain, and “point people” from various departments in Washington. But another visit — in the opposite direction — promises even greater interest when Modi visits the US on September 27, and meets President Obama in Washington on September 29.
Modi’s US visit could usher in a strategic partnership which has been discussed ad nauseam but has not gone beyond the ritual of lip service in the past.
Bilateral relations suffered several setbacks in recent years during prime minister Manmohan Singh’s government, with several issues undermining the bonhomie, ranging from opening up India’s retail trade to foreign companies through the WTO and defence contracts to the arrest of an Indian diplomat in New York over alleged human trafficking.
Then there was, of course, the cancellation of Modi’s US visa, which both sides now seem to have put behind them. Modi’s supporters in the large and powerful Indian diaspora in the US say that the Indian leader can expect a “royal red-carpet treatment” during his forthcoming visit; they claim the US administration will spare no effort to make up for treating him shabbily in the past decade and cancelling his US visa because of the 2002 Gujarat riots and killings, mainly of Muslims, when he was the state’s chief minister, though Indian courts have cleared him of any personal wrongdoing.
Gamut of issues
The Obama administration rushed to repair relations as soon as it became clear that Modi’s BJP party would win the recent general election and Modi would become the next prime minister.
The expectation that Modi in the prime minister’s saddle would replicate the Gujarat economic “miracle” at the national level, and lead the country’s economic bandwagon into the dawn of a new era of economic growth and prosperity, fuelled by reforms, also drove the Obama administration to make a turnaround on Modi.
Both sides seek a reconciliation driven by common strategic objectives on a gamut of issues such as fighting terrorism, maintaining open and free sea traffic throughout the Indo-Pacific region, the challenge of China’s rise, etc.
US Secretary of State John Kerry, during his recent visit to India, spoke of taking future India-US collaboration to the “next level”, manifested in meetings of the Counter Terrorism Joint Working Group, a ministerial-level homeland security and trade policy forum dialogue, etc. The US will also participate for the first time in India’s Annual Technology Summit in November.
Sniffing windfall business inherent in India’s defence modernisation — the country’s national defence outlay has been hiked by some 12 per cent — US defence companies are willing to help expand India’s defence industrial base by offering their technological knowhow in projects such as production of the Javelin anti-tank missile, as visiting Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel hinted in Delhi. India welcomed Hagel’s assurance that Washington respects its strategic autonomy.
The US, which has already signed defence contracts with India worth nearly $13 billion (Dh47.7 billion) in recent years, wants New Delhi to sign agreements with it on defence technology protection to facilitate transfer of the latest technology to the country. Modi is also interested in upgrading India’s strategic and military capabilities, with US technological support, to deter any possible Chinese aggression designs along India’s northeastern borders. Chinese incursions into India’s northeastern territory are a source of concern to Delhi, but some strategists suggest India should respond by increasing its presence in the South China Sea where it is collaborating with Vietnam for oil exploration.
Unlike his predecessor, Modi will be more open to Washington’s rebalancing course in the Asia-Pacific which some US politicians, talking to Indian interlocutors, have been calling the “Indo-Pacific”. US politicians routinely speak of India’s key role in Washington’s much-touted Asia pivot. Indeed, the existing trilateral naval cooperation between India, the US and Japan in the Pacific is expected to intensify in the future.
Modi’s pro-active leadership heralds a departure from his predecessor’s docile approach to Pakistan; the “new approach”, a sampling of which was provided in the swift cancellation of the foreign secretaries’ talks scheduled on August 25 in Islamabad after Pakistan’s high commissioner in Delhi met with Hurriyat separatist leaders, has not gone unnoticed in Washington and Beijing.
The nuclear liability issue has been a stumbling block in India-US relations for four years. While in the opposition, Modi’s BJP party had opposed the nuclear deal and pushed for liability legislation that complicated US companies’ ability to invest in civil nuclear projects in India. Washington will try anew to resolve the liability issue to facilitate US investments in India’s civil nuclear sector. But Washington is also expected to continue to press for India’s membership in the major multilateral nonproliferation groupings, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime.
The contours of a strategic India-US partnership are visible, but both sides need to do the tango now.
Manik Mehta is a commentator on Asian affairs.
